イギリス Vol.4(”Brexit”? – UK’s Referendum on EU Membership イギリスEU残留国民投票 Vol.3)

Here is just a part of articles/videos concerning the Brexit on Twitter through 13 June (BST).

Brexit and the Globalization Trilemma | @rodrikdani

Six economists on Brexit – interviews by @MrVikas | @yanisvaroufakis

What happens if we vote for Brexit? | @alanjrenwick @ConUnit_UCL

Unit publishes new Briefing Paper on Brexit and its consequences for Devolution and the Union [with PDF & Video] | @ConUnit_UCLScotland, Northern IrelandLong term consequences

Brexit, Hungary and EU Funding | Dr Thomas Lorman @UCLSSEES


Berlin and Paris need a strategy for Brexit | @GuntramWolff @Bruegel_org
– Which political strategy should the EU and its biggest two members, France and Germany, pursue if the UK were to leave? –

Debunking the Brexit myths: Four-fifths of scientists support staying in the EU. Here is why. | Sir PAUL NURSE @NewStatesman

Mapped: The Cosy Climate-Euro Sceptic Bubble Pushing for Brexit and Less Climate Action | @kylamandel @DeSmogUK

THE IDEOLOGUES WITHIN | @JohnSpringford @SimonTilford @CER_London
– Britain’s right-wing populists will not stop at Brexit – they want control of the Tory party and thus the country. Their ideological, unempirical world view provides few solutions to the problems facing the UK. –

European nations & organisationsNew Europeansafter poll surgeBeLEAVEfib.

U.S. Investors Are More Worried About Brexit Than a Summer Fed Hike or the Presidential Election | @julieverhage @LJKawa

You won’t ‘get back your country’ if you vote for a Brexit – you’ll give it to the most right-wing UK government in recent history | @Jon_Danzig
– The social policies once proposed by the pro-Brexit Iain Duncan Smith were described by the European Court of Justice as ‘unfit for a modern democracy’ and ‘verging on frighteningly authoritarian’ –

The Treasury ‘grossly exaggerated’ the economic and financial impact of Brexit, says academic review – and Cameron and Osborne are ‘treating us like children’ | @matt_dathan

A Don’s Life: Why I have voted ‘Remain’ — or ‘STAY, UK’ as I prefer to call it.

Boeing gives Brexit ANOTHER ‘fantastic’ boost by picking Britain for new European HQ [with Video – Boris Johnson] | @LanaC
– THE world’s largest aircraft maker has made the case for leaving the union even stronger by choosing Britain for its new European headquarters. –

Brexit would make the UK more secure by scuppering plans for an EU army, French admirals claim | @KateEMcCann

Brexit supporters have unleashed furies even they can’t control | @pollytoynbee

The UK Leaving the EU Would Change the European Music Industry | @laurasnapes @pitchfork

Brexit would mean fewer new homes built, major housebuilders say | @rowenamason

Brexit: It’s smarter to stay | @Brinkbaeumer & @FAHarms
– The choice is between a moment of pride and a new future built together: If Britain is clever, it will remain a member of the EU, because it will recognise that the future of the west is at stake. –

Why Leave campaign is personal and political for Gove [with Video] | @bbclaurak

Brexit would absolutely be applauded in Russia, says defence secretary | @NortonTaylor
– Michael Fallon tells defence committee that leaving EU would be ‘extraordinarily irresponsible at a very dangerous moment’ –

Brexit could lead to EU break-up – Swedish FM @margotwallstrom

‘Danexit’: Should Brexit Succeed Denmark Could Be Next | @TomlinsonCJ

Brexit Is a Bad Trade: U.K. trade policy would become a mess if the country leaves the EU. [with CARTOON GALLERY] | @ChadBown

Yen Soars As Markets Dive On Brexit Worries | @Investingcom

Pound Judgment Day Means Either Drop to 30-Year Low or 6% Rally | @aragaomarianna @Josh_A_Robinson

Brexit Could Be So Bad It’s Good for the Pound – Eventually | @is_fink

David Cameron’s Brexit threat to pensioners is a new low | @FraserNelson @spectator

Massive swing in UK to Brexit: poll | ARNAU BUSQUETS GUÀRDIA @POLITICOEurope

UK voters back Norway-style Brexit, poll reveals | @Pete_Spence

Trauma of SNB Haunts Currency Traders Planning for Brexit Vote | @chiaraalbanese @stespezzati

If Britain Leaves the EU, Paris Wants London’s Business | @FeargusOSull

This is an ex-project – John Cleese blasts EU and backs Brexit | @heraldscotland

Sam Cam – I’m in for my kids: In her own words, the PM’s wife delivers a Brexit broadside and says she won’t gamble on her children’s futures

Corbyn reveals the real reason he’s been so ‘silent’ on Brexit | CARLYN HARVEY @TheCanarySays

EU referendum: Sir James Dyson backs Brexit as Leave opens up poll lead | @robindepeyer @standardnews

CEO of @Unilever @PaulPolman talks to @JonSnow @Channel4News about how Brexit could hit the price of ice cream

Stephen Hawking, @Lord_Sugar, … | @StrongerIn

Brexit Countdown | @FT

“Deliberately Overblown” Brexit Fears Backfire | Tyler Durden @zerohedge

Leave: ‘We can rebuild the fishing industry outside EU’

Nine in ten fishermen will back Brexit, survey suggests | @DanSmatterings

Brexit Would Hand U.K’.s Trading Fate to Others | @StephenFidler1
– Outside the EU, Britain could find many countries weighing in on its trade arrangements –

Why Brexit Doesn’t Necessarily Mean a U.K. Recession | @CharltonEmma

Investors pull £65bn out of UK in two months | @ValRome0 @FundStrategy

Britain needs EU in fight against terrorism, warns former spymaster | @NortonTaylor

Brexit likelihood has increased, but Remain is still favourite | @MattSingh_

An even earlier Brexit had far worse consequences | @darrendodd

Yes or No, Brexit has already changed the UK | Rayhan Chouglay @risk_insights

Euroskepticism Beyond Brexit | @bruceestokes
– Significant opposition in key European countries to an ever closer EU –

Brexit and Scottish independence: Does campaign information actually change voters’ minds during a referendum? | @dmorisi

Brexit would be death knell for British influence in the world | @CatherineGegout @NottsPolitics

Central Banks Fear Trouble Ahead as Brexit Stress Goes Global | @endacurran @simonjkennedy

Poll reveals possible Brexit boost after Nigel Farage proved more convincing than Cameron | @ZoieOBrien_
– HE has been shunned from the official Leave campaign but Nigel Farage may well have given Brexit a boost last night ahead of the EU referendum. –

Anthill2: Brexit special – Prof Paul Whiteley @uniessexgovt talking economics, immigration and identity [Podcast] | @ConversationUK

More on the Bookies Odds of BREXIT | @DavidNFBell @ScotFES

So Just How United Are SNP Supporters on Europe? | @whatukthinks @WhatScotsThink

Blair Sees U.K. Rejecting Brexit as He Attacks Boris Johnson | John Micklethwait, @RobDotHutton

The EU is an outsized behemoth beyond reform – the Green case for Brexit | @GreenJennyJones
– This top-down dogmatic project promoting endless industrial development and growth doesn’t fit with the Green vision of a future lived on a more human scale –

On Brexit, Banks and Bargains | Philippe Brugere-Trelat




Employment and the ‘EU’: Are you voting for ‘Brexit’ or ‘Brita-in’?

‘Brexit’ Vote Looms As Sides Squabble Over Whether To Leave EU

“The Creation and Destruction of Value” 価値の創造と破壊 Vol.5

(All the below links are in English.)

Vol.5 2008年世界金融危機(第3章―1)

 2008年金融危機が先鋭化するにつれ、20世紀のGreat Depression(世界大恐慌)時の下降局面を想起させる脱グローバリゼーション現象が出てきた。カネ、モノ、人、の流れの減少である。

 米国の金融機関は、“lender of last resort”(最後の貸し手。参考:Central banks as lender of last resort: experiences during the 2007-2010 crisis and lessons for the future | Dietrich Domanski, Richhild Moessner, and William Nelson。)として金融当局や中央銀行を当てにしているにもかかわらず、国内向けには必ずしも貸し出しに積極的にならなかった。このため、例えば、米国政府によるAIGの救済で恩恵を受けたのは、大口の取引を有していたドイツ銀行、クレディ・リヨネ、UBSと外国金融機関であった。金融危機は、米国において、国際金融の繋がりへの根本的な疑問を呼び起こした。
 また、米国外からも、RBSのような損失が出た金融機関について「RBSの損失の殆ど全ては、米国内での営業上の住宅ローン担保証券商品などのサブプライム・モーゲージにおけるものであり、蘭ABN Amroを吸収したことによる(参考:Banking bailout: The rise and fall of RBS | Gordon Rayner)。英国国民のカネで銀行がこのような無責任な経営をしたことは、間違いだ。」とのブラウン英首相(当時)による批判があった。このとおり、英国政府による救済の重要部分は、RBSの外国支店や外国での事業を売却することであった。

U.K. イギリス Vol.3(”Brexit”?? – UK’s Referendum on EU Membership イギリスEU残留国民投票 Vol.2)

Here is just a part of articles/videos concerning the Brexit on Twitter on 6 June (BST).

Pro-Europe MPs could defy Brexit poll victory | @michaelsavage @elliotttimes @BrunoBrussels
Pro-Europe MPs could defy Brexit poll victory | @michaelsavage @elliotttimes @BrunoBrussels

Pound plunges as polls point to Brexit momentum | @oliver_wright
Pound plunges as polls point to Brexit momentum: Cameron urges voters to register as Leave camp surges ahead | @oliver_wright
– Cameron urges voters to register as Leave camp surges ahead –

Brexit would not make £8bn available for the NHS | @TheIFS
Brexit would not make £8bn available for the NHS | @TheIFS
Michael Gove

Farage: Brexit Would Be ‘First Domino’ In Disintegration Of EU | @BreitbartLondon

Economics of Brexit | @JacobReesMogg @SkyNewsTonight

Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed the odds on the UK voting to leave EU | Robert Kellaway
– A LEADING bookmaker slashed the odds on the UK voting to leave EU after political punters continued to show their support for Leave. –

Pro-EU MPs could stage guerrilla campaign to reverse Brexit decision | @patrickwintour
– MPs could initiate ‘reverse Maastricht’ to minimise number of EU laws the UK pulls out of, or push for a second referendum –

Brexit would leave EU less liberal, less Atlanticist | @ReutersAyataylo

Sterling falls after polls suggest growing Brexit support | @andrewwalker167

UK EU referendum | @NCPoliticsEU

Brexit huge risk for German economy | @Isabel_Schnabel @winterbiz @dw_business

Will the UK leave the EU? Keeping track of the polls, bookmaker odds, and the financial markets |‏@Pete_Spence

Brexit Lords have a cheek to complain about EU democracy | @nick_clegg
– It is ridiculous for a group of unelected British peers to criticise the lack of accountability of EU institutions –
[Excerpt] …With more than 800 members, the House of Lords is only second to China’s National People’s Congress in size and is about as undemocratic: unique in Europe, its members can revise and amend the laws of the land without anyone actually being elected…
Yet this obvious inconsistency appears to have escaped Lord Lawson et al when they berate the EU as “profoundly undemocratic”. I find what they do every day in the House of Lords profoundly undemocratic too.
Similarly, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and the other Brexit ministers appear to be entirely untroubled that they serve in a Government that garnered no more than 24 per cent of the eligible vote…
… It took the EU almost 30 years, for instance, to agree a common definition of chocolate … A body that takes three decades to define chocolate can be described as many things — not least slow and bureaucratic — but an undemocratic conspiracy is hardly one of them…

@SirJohnRoyMajor on Brexit | @StrongerIn

Conservatives will stand up for Britain if the EU lets us down | @SteveBakerHW
[Excerpt] …David Cameron has been spectacularly successful in Europe. No other Prime Minister has secured a cut in the European Union budget.

Poll gives Brexit campaign lead of three percentage points | @DanielBoffey
– Opinium survey suggests remain camp has lost four points in two weeks, as Boris Johnson prepares to campaign on security –

Brexit and the union: Tug of war | @TheEconomist
– Brexit could lead to a second Scottish independence referendum. But the place to fret about most is Northern Ireland –
[Excerpt] …Remainers have tried to use the Scottish card to strengthen their hand in England by warning that Brexit would trigger a second independence referendum which…a resurgent Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) might win…
…a month ago it lost its overall majority in the Scottish parliament… And even if she were able to call a second referendum, Ms Sturgeon cannot risk it… The example of Quebec suggests that two lost votes…for decades…
…Oil prices are half as high as then, so an independent Scotland would face even bigger economic and fiscal difficulties. After Brexit, the EU might be more welcoming to a Scotland seeking membership, but it would still object to its keeping the pound instead of adopting the euro. And if a post-Brexit United Kingdom ended free movement of people from the EU, that might mean erecting a border between north and south…
…Farming matters more in Northern Ireland than on the mainland, and it depends more on EU subsidies. Links to Ireland are crucial: it takes 34% of Northern Irish exports…
Ireland is the EU country most worried about Brexit. Irish ministers regularly state their opposition… Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market, and… Dublin to London is the world’s second-busiest international air route…

U.K. イギリス Vol.2(UK’s Referendum on EU Membership イギリスEU残留国民投票 Vol.1)

イギリスのEU残留国民投票(6/23)は、“Why the UK should stay in a reformed EU” 首相と国民との対話集会 でのキャメロン首相の定性的な主張の大筋のとおり、統計の精緻な分析に基づき定量的な説得力を持たせるというのが困難な性質のものかと考えられます。

確かに、EU非加盟国であるノルウェー(参考:Norway & EU & EEA)が国民一人あたりいくら払ってEU市場に入り、いくら売り上げていくら利益が出ている、EU加盟していればそれぞれの額はこうなっている、などと聴衆に訴えられればベストであったとは考えます。しかし、上記性質に加えて、そもそも本来的には、現状をひっくり返すと良くなる点を具体的・明確に示す証明責任はひっくり返したい離脱派にあり、できなければ “論理的には” 離脱派の負けです。

今月どのような動きになるか、そして、投票後に投票結果が及ぼす波状的・連鎖的影響も、適宜追って参ります。〔リンクは全てEnglish。UK’s referendum on EU membership | Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland に残っている文書も参考になります。〕

U.K. イギリス Vol.1

イギリスは何と言っても、アメリカが握る前の時代に世界の覇権を握っていた国。今でも、英語という世界第一言語を筆頭に、英連邦(the Commonwealth、参考:realms(英語))やイギリス文化などの様々な遺産を有し、経済力・人口・国土面積それぞれ強大ではないものの大きな国際的影響力を維持しています。積極的な貿易や地域間交流などに加えて、EU残留国民投票(6/23、参考:英ポンド見通し(日本語))前後の政治経済情勢など国際政治に係る動静や思考も追い少しずつ掘り下げて参ります。 標題『イギリス Vol._』とは異なる場合も含めて、記事や報道なども適宜ご紹介します。その際、〔以下リンク:原則、English。Welcome to GOV.UKから政府各省や大使館などへ繋がっています。〕

在日イギリス大使館(日本語)、@UKScienceJapanBritish Chamber of Commerce in Japan 在日イギリス商工会議所Foreign & Commonwealth Office イギリス外務英連邦省UK Trade & Investment イギリス貿易投資総省@UKTIJapan(日本語)、Department for Business, Innovation & Skills イギリスビジネスイノベーション技能省@UKSINetDepartment for Transport イギリス運輸省Department of Energy & Climate Change イギリスエネルギー気候変動省Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs イギリス環境食料農村地域省@walesoffice ウェールズ省@UKGovScotland スコットランド省@NIOPressOffice 北アイルランド省Her Majesty’s treasury イギリス大蔵省Bank of England イギリス中央銀行Prime Minister’s Office イギリス首相官邸Confederation of British Industry イギリス産業連盟、地方公共団体(EnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Irelandの各リストなど)・商工会議所(英国商工会議所 British Chamber of Commerce(日本語)など)、
@MatthewRycroft1 イギリス国連大使@BraithwaiteUKUN 在ジュネーブ国際機関イギリス政府代表部特命全権大使@UKMissionVienna 在ウィーン国際機関イギリス政府代表部特命全権大使@ukineu EUイギリス政府代表部@UKDelCoE@UKOSCE@UKNATO NATOイギリス政府代表部@UKOECD OECDイギリス政府代表部
@DChilcottFCO イギリス駐アイルランド大使@KimDarroch イギリス駐米大使@HDrakeUK イギリス駐加大使@MennaRawlings イギリス駐豪大使@JWRSinclair イギリス駐NZ大使@maritimeuk@SocMaritimeInd@BMCF_UK@ukshipping@ScotMarineInst@Arctic_Office@BAS_News@rbthUK@ICT_FRANCE_UK や他の公共機関、大学・研究機関・専門機関、企業・団体、新聞などの情報も拝見しながら、関連事情を随時総合的に把握する所存です。

UK’s referendum on EU membership | Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland

Republic of Ireland アイルランド政府による隣国イギリスのEU残留国民投票(6/23)に係る投稿です。 @dfatirl

なお、同政府のニュースサービスである @merrionstreet には良いレポートが並んでいたようですが、非常にセンシティブな状況のためかリンク切れが多い印象です。それでも残っているものもありますし、著者や所属機関が分かりますので、ご覧ください。