戦没者を追悼し平和を祈念する日 The day for mourning of war dead and praying for peace

標記は、終戦記念日について日本政府が定めた正式な呼称だそうです。世界的には14日が、日本の終戦及び第二次世界大戦の終結の日です。
今年で戦後73年です。国益と平和を確実に守って行かねばならないと毎度新たな気持ちになります。
アントニオ・グテーレス氏(元ポルトガル首相)が国連事務総長として史上初めて長崎の平和祈念式典(9日)に参列されましたので、それを筆頭に標記関係ツイートの一部を以下貼っておきます。


cf.


など

EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement 日EU経済連携協定(EPA)

All the below links but cf. are in Japanese, and all the below tweets are in English.

17日に首相官邸で日本とEUが署名した標記につき、以下貼っておきます。

日本語
日本とEU EPAに署名|NHK(下記は抜粋)
チーズ
日本が現在29.8%の関税をかけているカマンベールやモッツァレラといったいわゆる「ソフトチーズ」を含む最大3万1000トンまでの新たな輸入枠を設けます。
この輸入枠の関税は、協定の発効後、年々削減して15年後に撤廃するとしています。
また、この輸入枠を上回るチーズの関税率は現在の水準を維持します。
豚肉・牛肉
「豚肉」については、日本が価格が安い豚肉にかけている1キロあたり最大482円の関税を、協定発効後、9年をかけて50円まで削減します。
また価格が高い豚肉の4.3%の関税率は9年かけて撤廃します。
「牛肉」は、日本がかけている現在の38.5%の関税率を、15年かけて9%まで削減します。
「牛肉」と「豚肉」では、輸入量が急増した際に生産者への影響を緩和するため日本が関税率を引き上げることができる「セーフガード」と呼ばれる措置を導入します。これらは、TPP=環太平洋パートナーシップ協定とほぼ同じ内容になっています。
乗用車/自動車部品
EUは、日本から輸出される「乗用車」にかけている10%の関税を協定発効の7年後に撤廃するほか、「自動車部品」は、貿易額ベースで92.1%の品目について協定発効後、関税を即時、撤廃します。
日本とEUがEPAに署名、米保護主義に対抗(2018年7月18日)| BBC (下記は抜粋)
人口6億人、世界の国内総生産(GDP)の3分の1近くを占める経済圏が生まれる。2019年初頭の発効を目指している。
日欧EPA調印、「自由貿易前進の意思示す」と安倍首相(2018年7月17日)| ロイター
EPA署名 日本ワインに転換点 山梨「『甲州』の積極的な世界進出を」(2018年7月20日)| 産経新聞
日EU経済連携協定(EPA)| 外務省
cf. European Commission
Excerpt:… The EPA includes a free trade agreement (FTA) which opens up trade in goods between the two regions. Unlike other FTAs, the EPA helps their development through trade…

English

平成30年7月豪雨 Heavy Rains in Japan in July 2018

Here are tweets in English (through 6 pm on July 10) on heavy rains and floods in Japan this time.
標記に係る7月10日午後6時までの英語ツイートの一部を貼っておきます。これ以上各種被害が拡大しないことを祈っております。

2018 FIFA World Cup Russia ロシアW杯 Vol.3(Predictions 予測)

All the below links are in English.

私見ですが、一応ここまで来れば、“今回は”、試合を見る日本国民は、温かく応援し、適宜楽しむのが何よりでしょう。流れ上ではありますが、ワールドカップに関する投稿を少々続けることになりそうです。
そのため、(トランプ当選を外していました * が)有名な予測会社が更新し続けている表を当サイトに掲載した前回、数字への疑問と言う感覚を思い出してしまったことを、取り急ぎここに書き残しておきます。そして、関連の論文と記事に遭遇しましたので、以下、当方所感等と共に貼っておきます。

Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2018 – A random forest approach with an emphasis on estimated team ability parameters (06/08/2018) | Andreas Groll, Christophe Ley, Gunther Schauberger, Hans Van Eetvelde〔一部抜粋 excerpt〕
ドイツ人2人及びベルギー人2人の統計学研究者による共同論文についてです。
一見しただけの当方はもちろん統計学研究者でなく、著者4人も読者たる当方も英語ネイティブではない、等により、当方が充分に理解できていると言えません。ただ、こんな風に予測をするのかという雰囲気を感じられるよう、貼ることにしました。間違いが起こり難い工夫は重層的に成されてはいる、考慮要素(5頁)はどうなんだろうか、色々感じられることがあろうかと存じます。それでも、ドイツの Group Stage 敗退の可能性を充分考慮して計算していたのは、色んな意味で流石だと感じました。

なお、下記2件は、この論文についての記事です。
Scientists Predict World Cup 2018 Winner Using Machine Learning – A team of researchers is using a new method for analyzing large data sets called the random-forest approach to determine the outcome of World Cup 2018. (w PDF; 06/12/2018) | Loukia Papadopoulos INTERESTING ENGINEERING
This AI Simulated the 2018 World Cup 100,000 Times to Predict a Winner – A group of researchers used AI and machine learning to predict that Spain and Germany are the most likely winners of the 2018 World Cup in Russia. (06/27/2018) | Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai VICE

* これも、当たっても外れても現実には特に問題は無い、と当方は考えております。

2018 FIFA World Cup Russia ロシアW杯 Vol.2(Knockout Stage – The Last 16 決勝トーナメント)

All the below links are in English.

2018 World Cup Predictions – Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings and chances of advancing for every team, updating live. | FiveThirtyEight は、随時更新される 予測 table(表)です。
同表では、日本セネガル戦後から日本ポーランド戦までは、日本代表チームのH組1位通過可能性が一番高いとされていました。また、まだ表中に残されている“before tournament”では、日本は Knockout stage(決勝トーナメント)進出可能性50%未満でした。日本については、感覚に合います。
次戦ベルギー戦〔日本時間7月3日午前3時キックオフ、於:Rostov-on-Don(英)/Rostov-na-Donu(ロ音)/ロストフナドヌー(和)〕では、是非、こういう予測や感覚、データを破って、ノックアウトしてください。

以下、Group stage 情報も、取り急ぎご参考まで貼っておきます。
Groups & Schedule | BBC
Groups | FIFA
Russia 2018 – FIFA World Cup Wall Chart: fixtures and results | Bundesliga
World Cup 2018 fixtures and results so far: Every match, kick-off time and venue | Mirror

RussiaWorldCup2018-16-cbs-bracket

Japan-China-South Korea summit meeting, et al. 日中韓サミット(於:Tokyo)など

取り急ぎ標記関連ツイートを以下貼っておきます。
なお、弊社は本来主要業務を今のところ北米欧州オセアニアが直接関連する経済案件に絞っておりますが、間接的に関連する英語情報については余力のある範囲で貼ります。


勿論様々な状況にも左右されるため、優れているか否かその他を通常通り具体的に論じる意図はありませんが、外交については、現首相は日本歴代随一という世界的印象があるのではないでしょうか。
この1分弱の握手その他の様子からも、(これは本来は当然ですがそうでない首脳もいらっしゃるのでこの機会に書きますが)偉そうでもなく、私情を表に出さず、仕事一筋でされていると見受けられます。
なお、本来的に言うならば、フランスやロシアにも行政を担う首相がおられますが、首脳会談には来られません。

Obama’s visit to Japan(#Hiroshima関連:オバマ前米大統領訪日)

標記に係る報道等を、取り急ぎ貼っておきます。


https://twitter.com/911CORLEBRA777/status/975374455059853312


Donald Trump and North Korea tipped to be on agenda as Barack Obama renews friendship with Shinzo Abe (25/03/2018) | Danielle Demetriou @guardian
Abe to lunch with ex-President Obama in Tokyo (03/25/2018) | @NHKWorldNews_EN
安倍首相、オバマ前米大統領と銀座ですしランチ (日本語;写真有;2018年3月25日) | @AFP
「北朝鮮は本当の脅威」 来日中のオバマ元米大統領が北朝鮮情勢について発言 (日本語;2018年3月25日) | 産経新聞
…「第4回世界オピニオン・リーダーズ・サミット オバマ前大統領との対話」(NPO法人世界開発協力機構主催)にゲストとして出席。ブレンダン・スキャネル元駐日アイルランド大使との対談で、北朝鮮情勢や自身の広島訪問などについて語った。…
( Sake Royalty – What PM Shinzo Abe Poured Obama in Tokyo – And Why (May 2014) | @TrueSake )
Obama, in Japan, says NKorea’s isolation means less leverage (03/25/2018) | Yuri Kageyama @AP (@washingtonpost 等多数)
Obama envisions creating ‘a million young Barack Obamas’ during speech in Japan (03/25/2018) | Daniel Chaitin @dcexaminer


Post-presidency Obama meets PM Lee in S’pore: He wants to tell the world about the Obama Foundation and what it can do. (03/20/2018) | Belmont Lay @MothershipSG
Former US President Barack Obama catches up with PM Lee during his brief visit to Singapore (03/20/2018) | @CoconutsSG
Some very lucky young people got to meet Obama in Singapore – here’s what he’s been up to so far (03/20/2018) | Jessica Lin @BusInsiderSG
Listening to former US president Obama in person was 10 times better than seeing a pop star: Generation Grit millennial (03/19/2018) | Theresa Tan @STcom
Ganesh meets Obama in Singapore (03/21/2018) | LUQMAN ARIF ABDUL KARIM @NewStraitsTimes
Barack Obama shows he hasn’t lost his touch in Sydney visit (03/24/2018) | SAM BUCKINGHAM-JONES @australian
President Obama’s delivers invite-only address in Sydney: FACT and logic are being tested around the world, former President Obama has told an exclusive invite-only crowd in Sydney. (03/24/2018) | @newscomauHQ
Former US President Barack Obama’s third and final day in New Zealand (23/03/2018) | @nzherald
Obama in New Zealand for meetings, golf, but no public talks (03/25/2018) | Nick Perry @AP @washingtonpost
Former US president Barack Obama jets in to Auckland tonight (20/03/2018) | Claire Trevett @NewstalkZB

cf. https://twitter.com/WSjp_insight/status/978168699562508288

U.S.-Japan Summit Meetings 日米首脳会談 Vol.5(Abe’s Visit to the U.S. 安倍首相訪米)

All the below links are in English.

標記関連の英語記事及び一部抜粋を以下貼っておきます。

Japan’s Abe Says U.S., Japan Leaders Working On New Economic Dialogue: New discussions could serve as replacement for stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership (2/10/2017) | @damianpaletta & @TokyoWoods @WSJ
… The two leaders agreed that the economic dialogue between their deputies, Messrs. Pence and Aso, will cover three broad areas: coordinating fiscal and monetary policies; infrastructure investments, energy issues and cybersecurity; and bilateral trade, according to a senior official in a briefing with reporters. …
…he had hinted in recent weeks that Tokyo could be open to discussing a bilateral pact with the U.S. if requested by the Trump administration…
… A train that runs on Japan’s magnetic levitation, or maglev, system could travel between Washington and New York in about an hour, Mr. Abe told Mr. Trump, according to the Japanese official. Tokyo has funded an ongoing early-stage study to build the first leg of such a railway system between Washington and Baltimore.

Trump reaffirms U.S.-Japan security alliance in bid to soothe fears in Tokyo (w Videos; 2/10/2017) | @DavidNakamura & @abbydphillip @washingtonpost
… He denounced a sizable U.S. trade deficit to Japan and suggested Japan and South Korea were not paying their share to support American troops based in the region.
But the summit, aggressively pursued by the Japanese, aimed to erase doubts, even as the two sides remain at odds over how to move forward on trade and economic ties.
Trump sought to present the two countries in close harmony over shared challenges on North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs and China’s aggression in the South China Sea — “both of which I consider a very, very high priority,” he said. …
The Japanese leader also pledged that his country would play a “greater role” in defense and security operations, although he was vague on what that might entail. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are prohibited from combat missions abroad under the constitution imposed on the country by the United States after World War II. …
The summit was being watched closely by U.S. allies and partners across the globe for signs over how Trump would deal with a powerful ally after the unpredictable bluster of his campaign and early weeks of his presidency. …
It was not clear, however, whether Trump understood him; the president failed to attach the earpiece of his translation device until after Abe’s opening statement.

US-Japan alliance top priority as Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump embrace at the White House (w Video; 2/11/2017) | @AAPinLA @smh
“We have a very, very good bond.”
“Very, very good chemistry.” …
Ahead of the meeting, Mr Abe said that hacking, anti-trust laws and mistrust between the world’s largest nations was hindering global trade, and warned of a “threat” to the world economy in a speech to the US Chamber of Commerce. …
…announcing the US would build up its military presence alongside Japan to make their defensive capabilities “impenetrable”. …
…US Defence Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have already confirmed that the US continues to see the isles as part of its commitment to the alliance…
…the main aim of this meeting is to show clearly to those at home and abroad that the US-Japan alliance is unshakable,” Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda…

Donald Trump shook the Japanese Prime Minister’s hand for 19 seconds (w Video; 2/11/2017) | @brennawilliams @CNN
Diplomacy is an art. …

In Welcoming Shinzo Abe, Trump Affirms U.S. Commitment to Defending Japan (w Video; 2/10/2017) | @juliehdavis & @peterbakernyt @nytimes
… “This administration is committed to bringing those ties even closer. We are committed to the security of Japan and all areas under its administrative control and to further strengthening our very crucial alliance.” …
Speaking without notes later in the news conference, Mr. Trump said he had hit it off with Mr. Abe personally. “We have a very, very good bond — very, very good chemistry,” he said. “I’ll let you know if it changes, but I don’t think it will.” …
Acutely aware of Mr. Trump’s complaints about foreign competitors, Mr. Abe stressed that “Japanese businesses have built factories all over the United States” and invested $150 billion, creating many American jobs. “Japan, with our high level of technical capability, we will be able to contribute to President Trump’s growth strategy,” he said. “There will be even more new jobs being born in the United States.” …
…may have questions in private for Mr. Trump about his provocative statements related to Japan, including his warning to Toyota on Twitter that he would slap a “big border tax” on the carmaker if it built a new plant in Mexico and…
Even so, Mr. Abe’s visit could fuel suspicions in Beijing that Mr. Trump intends to make Japan, rather than China, the focal point of his engagement with Asia. That would be a distinct shift from former President Barack Obama, who hosted Mr. Xi in 2013 for an informal summit meeting at the 200-acre Sunnylands estate in Rancho Mirage, Calif. …
After a working lunch at the White House on Friday, the two leaders planned to board Air Force One and fly to… Mar-a-Lago…

Trump says US committed to Japan security, in change from campaign rhetoric (2/10/2017) | @reuters @CNBC
… A joint U.S.-Japanese statement said the U.S. commitment to defend Japan through nuclear and conventional military capabilities is unwavering.
The statement amounted to a victory for Abe, who came to Washington wanting to develop a sense of trust and friendship with the new U.S. president and send a message that the decades-old alliance is unshakable.
… The statement said the two leaders affirmed that Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan security treaty covered the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. …
Abe said he was “fully aware” of Trump’s decision to withdraw from the multilateral trade accord. But he said…
“I am quite optimistic that … good results will be seen from the dialogue,” he said, adding that Japan was looking for a fair, common set of rules for trade in the region. …
The Mar-a-Lago visit will be Trump’s first use of his Florida getaway for diplomatic purposes. …

Trump, Abe news conference – live updates (2/10/2017) | @RebeccaShabad @CBSPolitics

Global Power City Index(世界の都市総合力ランキング)2016 — Institute for Urban Strategies, Mori Memorial Foundation(森記念財団都市戦略研究所)

The below link is in English.

標記 Global Power City Index 2016 | Institute for Urban Strategies, The Mori Memorial Foundation において、東京が3位にランクインしています。
日本発の数少ない指標において日本の代表都市が正々堂々上位ランクインしていることを残しておく意味でも、ご参考まで summary の一部を以下貼らせて頂きます。
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Japan: land of the rising sharemarket

The below links are in English.

Japan: land of the rising sharemarket (1/13/2017) ‏| @ComminsP @FinancialReview の一部抜粋及び抄訳を以下貼っておきます。

You may be surprised to hear that the best performing sharemarket in the developed world over the past six months is Japan’s. And strategists reckon there’s more where that came from in 2017.
The words “blockbuster growth” and “Japan” are rarely used together in the same sentence. …
But economic growth and sharemarket returns often bear little relation to each other. …
…earnings – and share prices – typically receive a boost as the currency falls. And with the US-dollar exchange rate trading in a range of ¥115-¥118… @GaveKal…
…not enough to push the yen price of imported commodities up to painful levels…(円安は…輸入コモディティの日本円での価格を痛いというほどのレベルまでには押し上げていない…)
That has helped spark the 23 per cent surge in the Japanese sharemarket over the past six months. “That strength is set to continue into 2017, with the Tokyo market remaining well bid on the back of a monetary policy stance that the Bank of Japan will find it hard – even impossible – to retreat from.”(この円安で過去6ヶ月に株価が23%上昇した。2017年も引き続き上昇傾向にあり、東京市場は金融緩和に支えられているので日銀は緩和から撤退できない。)
文中参考: Bank of Japan Introduces Yield-Targeting Resime for Government (9/21/2016) | @Tim_ber_wolf @FinancialReview
…even as global bond yields climbed at an alarming rate, Japan’s government bonds, or JGBs, remained pinned at zero per cent.(…グローバル債の債券利回りが異常に上昇していても、日本国債の利回りはゼロのままである。)
“Against a backdrop of rising long rates elsewhere in the world, this policy trap has significant implications for flows out of the yen and into foreign currency asset markets, as well as for the Japanese equity and real estate markets,” Newman writes. “These outflows have added to depreciation pressure on the yen.”(日本以外の世界での長期国債の利回り上昇を背景にして、この(10年物)国債利回りのゼロ%程度への誘導政策は、日本の株式市場と不動産市場に対するのと同様に、日本円から流出する外貨建資産市場に対しても重大な含蓄を持っている。”この流出は円安圧力に加勢してきた。”)
…Morgan Stanley…
…a “double upgrade” of the Japanese sharemarket: from an underweight to overweight position. … …plenty of solid appetite for Japan’s equity market, including from big government players such as the BoJ and the national pension fund, or GPIF.
…a combination of renewed re-engagement from foreign investors coupled with equity and ETF purchases from the GPIF and BoJ, respectively, that are equivalent to around 2 per cent of market capitalisation…(GPIFと日銀からの株式とETFの購入、そして、外国人投資家による買いが組み合わさって、株価が上昇し得る。これらは、(一部上場全銘柄)時価総額の約2%に相当する…)
…aggregate earnings per share in Japan will jump 24 per cent…a 16 per cent climb in the Topix index to 1800 points.
… The world economy certainly has built a head of steam, and Japanese businesses are firmly tied to the cyclical uplift. …(…循環的上昇…)
“About 14 per cent of Japanese company profits come directly from North American-based production and so should benefit from Donald Trump’s promise to dramatically cut US corporation tax rates,” Newman says. “Japan, which sells about 45 per cent of its offshore production in the US, is well placed to deal with a more ‘de-globalised’ world.”(日本企業の約14%の利益は北米での生産から直接来ているので、ドナルド・トランプの劇的な法人税引き下げ公約の恩恵に与る。日本は海外生産の約45%をアメリカで販売しているので、脱グローバル化した世界に対応するのに有利である。)
…the easiest way to play the Japanese theme is via the the currency-hedged Betashares WisdomTree Japan exchange-traded fund. The ETF tracks a “smart beta” fund, which applies some mechanical rules to put together a portfolio of the biggest Japanese listed names, and has an inbuilt tilt towards exporters. …
…a sharemarket that comes to be seen by offshore investors as primarily a currency bet does not make for a great long-term investment, and leaves your investment vulnerable to a sharp rebound in the yen. …
…125 yen…