U.S.A. アメリカ Vol.3(1st US Presidential Debate 9/26/2016 ー 米国大統領選挙テレビ討論会)

All the below links are in English. Excerpts are on our own.

1960年(参考:1st Kennedy-Nixon debate (YouTube))や1980年には選挙の帰趨を決したとも言われるのが、 Presidential Debate です。標記第1回(於:@HofstraU)の内容に関する記事の抜粋等を取り急ぎ以下貼っておきます。

Trump And Clinton Sounded As If They Were Talking About Two Different Countries | @bencasselman @fivethirtyeight
… U.S. manufacturing employment has been hit by automation as much as by globalization, and most economists think trade with China has had a much bigger impact on the economy than NAFTA. …
… But in recent years, research has found that the negative effects of trade — lost jobs, lower wages — last longer than previously believed. Economists once thought that Rust Belt communities, or at least their residents, would rebound quickly from the loss of factory jobs; that hasn’t happened. …
… On Monday, however, Trump largely abandoned his populist rhetoric on taxes and instead embraced more traditional Republican talking points: Cutting taxes, including on the rich, he argued, will lead them to invest more in companies and create jobs, while lowering and restructuring corporate taxes will encourage businesses to bring back money stashed overseas. Many economists agree that, all else equal, lowering taxes will tend to boost economic growth. But few believe Trump’s plan would deliver as much of an economic boost as he claims. … 
Crime and policing
… The candidates offered different policy approaches: Trump called for more aggressive policing, singling out New York’s abandoning of its “stop-and-frisk” policy under Mayor Bill de Blasio. Trump said the controversial policy worked; Clinton said it discriminated against minority residents. (Holt pointed out that the policy had been ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge; Trump said the ruling would have been reversed if it had been appealed.) Clinton instead called for gun restrictions, including universal background checks (which research has suggested could help reduce gun killings) and broader criminal justice reform, including abandoning mandatory-minimum sentences, which she said “have put too many people away for too long, for doing too little.” …

Presidential fireworks: The verdict | David Ribar @MelbInstUOM, @LaurenRosewarne @unimelb, James Cahill @Government_UoM; @electionwatch_, Election Watch USA
… It was also a surprisingly effective policy battle – though fought using completely different tactics by the two candidates.
Viewers who wanted policy details got heaps of information from Clinton, who offered a comprehensive list of initiatives to grow the American economy, improve outcomes for the country’s middle class, strengthen policing, heal race relations, address the problems of America’s inner cities, counter cyber vulnerabilities, and fight ISIS.

… Trump’s strategy, however, wasn’t to offer policy specifics but rather to discredit Clinton’s and thereby discredit her. In this regard, Trump’s responses were nothing to sniff about – though sniff and sniffle he did. In every segment of the debate Trump emphasised the country’s problems – job losses, rising murder rates, and increasing threats at home and abroad.
Trump followed this litany of woe with effective criticisms of the failure of politicians generally, and of President Barack Obama and Clinton specifically, to address these problems. He repeatedly asked Clinton why she didn’t fix these problems during her long years of service. Trump clearly played to his strengths as an outsider. …
For the first couple of moments, Trump’s tone was under control. Clinton’s was shaky, her sentences over-rehearsed. Initially he accomplished a natural, off-the-cuff persona. She was stiff and awkward. …
… He went so far as to pat himself on the back for not saying “something extremely rough to Hillary”, all the while being unable to resist the siren’s call of fat-shaming ­– apparently the cyber attack on the Democratic National Committee could have been “someone sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds,” and, hilariously, the tried and true ‘you-love-it-so-much-why-don’t-you-marry-it’ schoolyard zinger of “the Iran deal that you’re so in love with”. …
… Forced to answer, I’d say Clinton, but this was no knockout. Her performance will likely help her make some progress with her intended audiences – moderate Republicans uncomfortable with Trump and wavering young Democrats. Trump largely stuck to his standard message and it would be unlikely if he won over many voters not already in his camp. …
… Strategically, I don’t think this debate will help Trump move beyond his apparent polling ceiling of roughly 43-44%. The part of the Republican voting coalition that is most resistant to Trump’s candidacy are college-educated, white, married women. Over-reliance on his well-known material and repeatedly interrupting Clinton are not likely to change the minds of many of these voters. …

Damned by Faint Trump | @KoriSchake @ForeignPolicy
– Last night’s debate was nothing to crow about on either side, but Hillary Clinton definitely got the better of her rival.
… But it wasn’t horrible — it had substantive moments — and that’s noteworthy this election cycle. Hillary Clinton lived up to her Saturday Night Live impersonation of shrewdness, came locked and loaded with oppo research on Donald Trump’s taxes, business practices, the name of a woman he demeaned, policy citations … and gave Trump all the rope he demanded to explain himself at length. She did some A+ trolling, chipping his vanity and counting on his inability to restrain himself. It was a successful strategy. Trump landed several solid blows but simply lacked the discipline to drive home the points (for example, on her emails). His insistence on his “temperament” as his best quality was refuted by his performance. …
… I thought she missed the chance to bash Trump about his Russian connections. Her policy recommendations are also pretty weak: declaring we won’t permit states to target our private or government information, and that we have tools we could use and will defend our citizens. She seems innocent of the hostility most tech firms have toward Washington, breezily counting on working with them. …
Trump repeated much nonsense… claiming Iran was “ready to fall” before the nuclear agreement propped the government up, falsely claimed he convinced NATO to start looking at terrorism, weirdly claimed that “all of the things she is talking about could have been taken care of in the past 10 years when she had immense power.”
He revisited his standard complaints about America’s unaffordable alliance relationships, giving Clinton her best moment of the night as she spoke to reassure America’s allies that our country will honor our mutual defense treaties and can be trusted to keep its word. It pretty well defanged his claim that “she’s got experience, but it’s bad experience. And this country can’t afford to have another four years of that kind of experience.” …

Trump, Clinton debate fact-checks (a running collection) | @YLindaQiu @PolitiFact
Here are 33 claims from Clinton and Trump, fact-checked. …(17 claims as below)
Clinton: Trump’s tax plan would deliver “the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country.”
Clinton: “He started his business with $14 million, borrowed from his father.”
Trump: “My father gave me a very small loan in 1975, and I built it into a company that’s worth many, many billions of dollars, with some of the greatest assets in the world.”
Clinton: “In fact, Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. He said, back in 2006, ‘Gee, I hope it does collapse, because then I can go in and buy some and make some money.’ Well, it did collapse.”
Clinton: “Independent experts have looked at what I’ve proposed and looked at what Donald’s proposed, and basically they’ve said this, that if his tax plan, which would blow up the debt by over $5 trillion.”
Trump: The Obama administration “has doubled” the national debt in eight years.
Trump: “You go to New England, you go to Ohio, Pennsylvania, you go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton, and you will see devastation where manufacturing is down 30, 40, sometimes 50 percent.”
Trump: “Now, look, we have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression.”
Trump: “You will learn more about Donald Trump by going down to the Federal Election Commission” to see the financial disclosure form than by looking at tax returns.
Clinton: “You’ve taken business bankruptcy six times.”
Clinton: “You even at one time suggested that you would try to negotiate down the national debt of the United States.”
Trump: “In Chicago, they’ve had thousands of shootings, thousands since January 1st. Thousands of shootings.”
Clinton: “Donald started his career back in 1973 being sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination because he would not rent apartments in one of his developments to African-Americans.”
Trump: “I settled that lawsuit with no admission of guilt.”
Clinton: “I was so shocked when Donald publicly invited Putin to hack into Americans. That is just unacceptable.”
Clinton: “He actually advocated for the actions we took in Libya and urged that Gadhafi be taken out, after actually doing some business with him one time.”
Clinton: “John Kerry and President Obama got a deal that put a lid on Iran’s nuclear program without firing a single shot.”

Clinton Prevails in Downer of a Debate | @amyewalter @CookPolitical

Producing “The Choice” – Frontline’s Documentary on the 2016 Presidential Candidates (Soundcloud) | @DukeSanford

Many Young Voters Remain On The Fence After First Debate (w radio) | @asmamk @NPR

Poll: Clinton Leads Trump Ahead of First Debate | @mmurraypolitics(9/21)

Debating the debates | @cpazzanese @Harvard Gazette(9/22)
– Harvard analysts ponder the upcoming presidential clashes, how viewers may react, and how the candidates might snare their votes

Polls: Clinton Running the Table in Key Battlegrounds | @mmurraypolitics(8/12)

New September Electoral College Ratings | @amyewalter @CookPolitical(9/23)

The Race Tightens But the Math Heavily Favors Clinton | @CharlieCookDC @CookPolitical(9/20)

投稿者: ワールド ソルーションズ