U.S.A. アメリカ Vol.10(U.S. Senate & House ー 連邦議会上院及び下院)

(All the below links are in English.)

選挙なので様々ある中でも10/28のFBI捜査再開がクリントン候補への逆風となったものの、不起訴とすることを再捜査により決定した旨の11/6のFBI発表は、大統領選挙については逆風を短期間で収束させつつある、と各種世論調査から読むことはできます(参照:連邦議会上下両院議員選挙及び知事選挙も含めて、worldsolutions.work “US Presidential Election 2016 Vol.7 (polls up to early morning 11/7)”)。
アメリカでも、捜査するしない・起訴するしないが原則検察官等に委ねられているのは、日本の刑事訴訟法189条2項(犯罪があると思料し捜査を開始)・248条(起訴便宜主義)などと大筋同様(例:Information Network for Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters and ExtraditionThe Theory Of Prosecutorial Discretion In Federal Law: Origins And Developments (PDF) | Rebecca Krauss (@YaleLawSch) @SetonHallLaw 4頁目)のようですから、新たな証拠が見つかるなど無い限り本件の蒸し返しは今後無い、ということでしょうか。

その連邦議会上院及び下院の政策関連権限、そしてその権限に基づき今後の政策方向性に大きく作用する上下両院の議席予測につき以下簡単に触れておきます。(アメリカ合衆国憲法条文及び説明については、U.S. Constitution | @LIICornell で検索できます。)

政策方向性を考えると、上院 Senate に特化された権限では、下記が気になります。
○ 条約批准・修正等に係る大統領への出席議員の3分の2による助言と承認(Article II, Section 2, Clause 2, U.S. Constitution “He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur;”)
○ 公務員任命に係る大統領への助言と承認 (Article II, Section 2, Clause 2, U.S. Constitution “and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.”)
今は上記規則上必要無くなった長時間演説は減っているようですが、クルーズ議員のオバマケア反対演説が報道では良くも悪くも大きく取り上げられていました(例. Cruz ends marathon speech | @burgessev @politico)。

他方、下院 House に特化された権限では予算法案の先議権(※ Article I, Section 7, U.S. Constitution)などがありますが、政策方向性を考えるとやはり定数・任期・党派構成などが上院と異なることによる下院の政治動向が気になります。

All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills.
Every bill which shall have passed the House of Representatives and the Senate, shall, before it become a law, be presented to the President of the United States; if he approve he shall sign it, but if not he shall return it, with his objections to that House in which it shall have originated, who shall enter the objections at large on their journal, and proceed to reconsider it. If after such reconsideration two thirds of that House shall agree to pass the bill, it shall be sent, together with the objections, to the other House, by which it shall likewise be reconsidered, and if approved by two thirds of that House, it shall become a law. But in all such cases the votes of both Houses shall be determined by yeas and nays, and the names of the persons voting for and against the bill shall be entered on the journal of each House respectively. If any bill shall not be returned by the President within ten days (Sundays excepted) after it shall have been presented to him, the same shall be a law, in like manner as if he had signed it, unless the Congress by their adjournment prevent its return, in which case it shall not be a law.
Every order, resolution, or vote to which the concurrence of the Senate and House of Representatives may be necessary (except on a question of adjournment) shall be presented to the President of the United States; and before the same shall take effect, shall be approved by him, or being disapproved by him, shall be repassed by two thirds of the Senate and House of Representatives, according to the rules and limitations prescribed in the case of a bill.

選挙の結果予想は、上院については、2016 Senate Election Interactive Map: 34 U.S. Senate seats to be contested in 2016 | @270toWin (@CookPolitical,@LarrySabato,@battleground_16) では、民主党・共和党いずれが過半数を取るかは予測し切れず、また、現職落選(いずれも共和党)はイリノイ・ニューハンプシャー・ペンシルバニア・ウィスコンシンと予測されています。GOP Hopes Rise In Battle For The Senate, But Democrats Still Have The Edge (11/7) | @JessicaTaylor @nprpolitics では、現職或いはその後継者の党議席維持と予測されているミズーリ・ノースカロライナ・インディアナ・ネバダ・フロリダ・アリゾナ・オハイオについても、上記4州に加えて説明があります。
下院は 2016 House Election Interactive Map: All 435 House seats to be contested in 2016 | @270toWin (@CookPolitical,@LarrySabato,@battleground_16) で共和党が過半数を取ると予測されています。


投稿者: ワールド ソルーションズ