ツイッター paper.li Vol.9

All the below links are in English.

弊社ツイッターアカウントの一つ @WSjp_insight のRTによる paper.li 掲載記事4件を貼っておきます。

Sweden’s first urban electric car launches crowdfunding campaign | @EAIndustry

7 EXAMPLES OF SUSTAINABILITY IN SWEDEN | @swedense

Arctic House Design Saves Energy and Embraces Inuit Culture | @ArcticDeeply

Mike Pence Defends Refugee Plan Blocked by Judges | @m_rhodan @TIME

U.S.A. アメリカ Vol.5(PROBLEMS UNSOLVED AND A NATION DIVIDED)

All the below links are in English. Excerpts are on our own.

PROBLEMS UNSOLVED AND A NATION DIVIDED (PDF; September 2016) | @MichaelEPorter, Jan W. Rivkin, @desaimihira, with Manjari Raman – The State of U.S. Competitiveness 2016 Including findings from @HarvardHBS’s 2016 surveys on U.S. competitiveness
抜粋・抄訳です。

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY p.2-5
Key Findings(主な調査結果)
[Chapter 1] The U.S. economy in an era of political paralysis
• Addressing America’s economic challenges requires a common understanding of competitiveness and the true underpinnings of prosperity. We define competitiveness as follows: A nation is competitive to the extent that firms operating there can compete successfully in domestic and international markets while also lifting the living standards of the average citizen. Competitiveness must lead to shared prosperity, in which all Americans have the opportunity to advance economically.
(アメリカの経済的課題に対処するには競争力についての理解を共有し繁栄の基盤を真に増強することが必要である。我々が定義する競争力とは、民間企業が一般市民の生活水準を引き上げつつ国内外の市場で競争に勝てることである。競争力は、全てのアメリカ国民が経済的に前進する機会を持つ、共有された繁栄につながるはずである。)
• U.S. competitiveness has been eroding since well before the Great Recession. America’s economic challenges are structural, not cyclical. The weak recovery reflects the erosion of competitiveness, as well as the inability to take the steps necessary to address growing U.S. weaknesses.
• Our failure to make progress reflects an unrealistic and ineffective national discourse on the reality of the challenges facing the U.S. economy and the steps needed to restore shared prosperity. Business has too often failed to play its part in recent decades, and a flawed U.S. political system has led to an absence of progress in government, especially in Washington.

[Chapter 2] Faltering U.S. economic performance
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• America’s economic performance peaked in the late 1990s, and erosion in crucial economic indicators such as the rate of economic growth, productivity growth, job growth, and investment began well before the Great Recession.
• Workforce participation, the proportion of Americans in the productive workforce, peaked in 1997. With fewer working-age men and women in the workforce, per-capita income for the U.S. is reduced.
(生産的労働力の労働参加は1997年にピークを迎えた。…)
• Median real household income has declined since 1999, with incomes stagnating across virtually all income levels. Despite a welcome jump in 2015, median household income remains below the peak attained in 1999, 17 years ago. Moreover, stagnating income and limited job prospects have disproportionately affected lower-income and lower-skilled Americans, leading inequality to rise.
(実質家計所得の中央値は1999年以来下落し、事実上全ての所得レベルにおいて停滞し続けている。…)
• A similar divergence of performance has also occurred between large companies and small businesses. While large firms have been able to prosper, small companies are struggling, startups are lagging, and small business is no longer the leading job generator.
(… 大企業は繁盛することができたが、中小企業は苦労し、起業者は沈滞し、スモールビジネスはもはや雇用を産み出す牽引役ではなくなっている。)
• Overall prosperity is growing slowly, but the benefits are increasingly not flowing to middle- and lower-income Americans. This puts the American Dream, or the ability of any American to advance and prosper, at risk.

[Chapter 3] An eroding U.S. business environment
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• The U.S. economy retains critical strengths. Business leaders (including HBS students) perceive strengths in areas such as higher education, entrepreneurship, communications infrastructure, innovation, capital markets, strong industry clusters, and sophisticated firm management. However, these strengths are being offset by weaknesses such as the corporate tax code, the K–12 education system, transportation infrastructure, the health care system, and the U.S. political system. Skills have also been eroding and becoming a weakness. Many of the greatest weaknesses are in areas driven by federal policy.
(アメリカ経済は決定的な強みを維持している。… しかし、…弱みに相殺されつつある。スキルも衰え弱みになってきた。多くの最大の弱みは、連邦政府の政策により運営されてきた分野のものである。)
• Alumni working in smaller firms have more negative views of the U.S. business environment than alumni working in larger firms. Members of the general public see the same U.S. competitive weaknesses as HBS alumni but, unlike alumni, perceive far fewer strengths.
• This pattern of strengths and weaknesses helps explain why the U.S. economy is no longer delivering shared prosperity. Large companies, the skilled individuals who run them, and those who invest in them benefit from America’s greatest strengths and are prospering. However, workers and small businesses are captives of the nation’s major weaknesses.
• Pessimism about the trajectory of U.S. competitiveness deepened in 2016, for the first time since we started surveying alumni in 2011. Fifty percent of the business leaders surveyed expect U.S. competitiveness to decline in the coming three years, while 30% foresee improvement and 20% see no change.
• Business leaders and the general public are particularly concerned about the future of American workers: respondents who expect lower pay and fewer employment opportunities for the average American in the future far outnumber those who expect improving worker outcomes.
• Inadequate investment in those parts of the business environment on which middle-class Americans depend (areas like K–12 education and skills), together with lack of policy improvement in areas on which small businesses depend (tax policy, regulations, infrastructure), have undermined overall productivity and shared prosperity.

[Chapter 4] The pressing need for a national economic strategy
• Given the significant challenges facing the American economy, the U.S. needs a national economic strategy more than at any other time in recent history. A strategy is an integrated set of priorities that builds on strengths while acknowledging and tackling weaknesses. It identifies the sequence of steps needed to best move ahead.
• The U.S. lacks an economic strategy, especially at the federal level. The implicit strategy has been to trust the Federal Reserve to solve our problems through monetary policy.
(アメリカには、経済政策、とりわけ連邦レベルのものが欠けている。暗示されている戦略は、連銀が金融政策によって問題を解決してくれるのを信頼することであった。)
• A national economic strategy for the U.S. will require action by business, state and local governments, and the federal government. All three levels have a crucial role to play in restoring competitiveness.
• Taking leadership in improving U.S. competitiveness is a pressing imperative for business leaders. Many companies have failed to invest enough in improving the business environments in the regions in which they operate. Companies can have a major impact on restoring U.S. competitiveness through internal steps such as training and improving opportunities and compensation for lower-income employees. Companies must also step up their role to enhance the business environment in their communities by investing in workforce skills, supporting public education, restoring a local supplier base, and participating in collaborative economic development programs in their regions. We find growing evidence that company attitudes toward investing in competitiveness are improving and this is a welcome development. There are more and more innovative programs underway by business in skills, education, and other areas critical to competitiveness.
(アメリカの競争力を回復させるのにリーダーシップを発揮することは、ビジネスリーダーにとって緊近の責務である。多くの会社は、自分達の事業分野におけるビジネス環境への投資を十分にできていない。会社は、低所得従業員への訓練や機会・手当の改善のような社内対策を通してアメリカの競争力を回復させるのに大きな影響力を持つことができる。…)
• State and local governments must also play a crucial role in improving the business environment, because many of the crucial drivers of competitiveness are local. States and cities need a clear strategy for competitiveness rather than isolated initiatives, and government leaders should foster cross-sector collaborations among local business leaders and other community stakeholders.
(競争力の決定的な推進者の多くは地域に根差しているので、州と市等政府もビジネス環境を改善するのに決定的な役割を担わなければならない。…)
• At the state and local level, the Project has found many examples of innovative steps to enhance competitiveness. Mayors, governors, nonprofit leaders, educators, and businesses are working together in new ways to build workforce skills, invigorate the local education system, upgrade infrastructure, improve the entrepreneurial ecosystem, and develop regional economic strategies. Cities and states across America are moving forward toward competitiveness, but more can be done and best practices need to be shared.
(… 市長、知事、非営利団体リーダー、教育者、ビジネスは、労働力のスキルを創り上げ、地域の教育システムを活気付け、起業的なエコシステムを改善し地方の経済戦略を策定する新しい手法において協働している。…)

[Chapter 5] An economic strategy for Washington
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• Efforts by business and state and local government to restore competitiveness cannot deliver their full promise if the federal government does not act. Many of the major weaknesses facing the U.S. are in areas controlled by the federal government.
• In 2012, we put forward an Eight-Point Plan of federal policy priorities that would unlock U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. The Eight-Point Plan consists of the following policy recommendations: simplify the corporate tax code with lower statutory rates and no loopholes; move to a territorial tax system like all other leading nations’; ease the immigration of highly-skilled individuals; aggressively address distortions and abuses in the international trading system; improve logistics, communications, and energy infrastructure; simplify and streamline regulation; create a sustainable federal budget, including reform of entitlements; and responsibly develop America’s unconventional energy advantage.
(アメリカの経済成長や競争力の停滞を解き放つ連邦レベルの重点政策であるエイトポイント・プランを、我々は2012年に策定した。税率を下げ抜け穴もなくす法人税法の簡素化、他の主要国同様の源泉地国課税への移行、高度移住者の移入手続の簡素化、国際貿易における歪みや濫用への積極的な対処、物流・通信・エネルギーのインフラ拡充、規制の簡易化・合理化、福祉改革を含む持続可能な連邦政府予算の作成、アメリカのこれまでにないエネルギー優位を責任を持って創り出すこと、を提言している。)
• Each of these areas represents compelling U.S. weaknesses, primarily controlled by the federal government, that can have the most significant and near-term impact on the U.S. economy. There is also wide consensus on the policy change needed to make progress in each area. There are two other crucial U.S. weaknesses, public education and health care, but these are in fields controlled heavily at the state and local levels with no clear consensus yet on solutions.
(それぞれの分野は、アメリカの反論できないほどの弱みを表している。その弱みは、主に連邦政府に権限が握られているものであって、アメリカ経済にとって最も重要かつ近々に影響のあるものであった。また、各分野において進展させるための政策変更をしても構わないというコンセンサスがある。他に二つ、アメリカの決定的な弱みがあり、公共教育とヘルスケアである。しかし、これらは州と市等に大半の権限があるものであり、対処に係る明確なコンセンサスは無い。)
• Progress on even some of these eight priorities would transform the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the economic prospects of all Americans.
• A strong majority of HBS alumni and HBS students support all eight priorities, with consensus across all political affiliations. When asked in open-ended questions about which priorities alumni felt were most important for federal economic policy, alumni identify virtually the same priorities as those in the Eight-Point Plan. Alumni also mention education, health care, and the political system.
• In the general public survey, there was net positive support for seven of the eight priorities, with a tie on territorial taxes. Public support tended to be somewhat weaker, reflecting the fact that many in the public could neither agree nor disagree, or did not know, whether the eight priorities were good or bad for the economy. Divisive political rhetoric and an uninformed national debate have confused the average American about what the country needs to do to restore the economy. This confusion is a serious obstacle to America’s ability to make progress.
• Despite strong bipartisan support in business and net public support for the Eight-Point Plan, Washington has made very little or no progress on any of these federal economic priorities for well over a decade. The current presidential election is showing no signs of advancing a coherent plan to address these areas.

[Chapter 6] Achieving tax reform
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• We believe tax reform is the single area with the greatest potential for immediate impact on the economy and is long overdue given changes in the global economy. Corporate tax policy has become a key obstacle to U.S. competitiveness and economic growth, and reforming both corporate and personal taxation is essential to achieving a sustainable federal budget.
(税制が直ちに経済に最大の可能性をもたらす唯一の分野である、世界経済の変化の下で長年の懸案である、と我々は信じている。法人税政策は、アメリカの競争力及び経済成長に対する主な障害となっている。法人税制及び個人税制の改革は、持続的な連邦政府予算の実現にとって必須である。)
• Good tax policy should be guided by the goals of increasing economic efficiency, achieving greater equity, and reducing complexity. The forces of globalization have amplified the inefficiencies and complexities of the current tax system and demand that reform make the U.S. less of an outlier in key tax policy areas – particularly corporate tax policy. Efforts to reduce the negative effects of globalization should be focused on improving competitiveness, for instance, by upgrading the skills of workers threatened by offshoring, rather than on ill-targeted tax policies.
• The top corporate tax problems, according to the surveyed business leaders, are the high corporate tax rate and the taxation of international income. Business leaders report overwhelming and bipartisan support (over 95%) for corporate tax reform. Consensus corporate tax reforms include reducing the statutory rate by at least 10 percentage points, moving to a territorial tax regime, and limiting the tax-free treatment of pass-through entities for business income. The transition to a territorial regime should be complete, not half-hearted via the inclusion of an alternative minimum tax on foreign income. The feasibility of corporate tax reform is promising given the broad consensus on the nature of the problem and the required direction for reform.
(ビジネスリーダーへの調査結果によると、法人税制の一番の問題は、税率の高さと、国際的収入への課税である。法人税制改革には、圧倒的多数かつ超党派で(95%超)の支持が集まっている。法定税率を少なくとも10%下げること、源泉地国課税へと移行すること、パス・スルー法人の事業収入への免税措置を限定すること、などである。…)
• Comprehensive reform of personal taxes will be more challenging. There is less support for many types of personal tax reform. However, there is broad support for instituting a minimum tax on incomes above $1,000,000. Increasing the tax rate on savings; eliminating the deductibility of charitable giving, state and local taxes, and mortgage interest; and taxing employer-provided health insurance did not receive majority support. Respondents support limitations on deductions and exemptions in general but react strongly against them when specific examples are provided.
(個人税制の包括的改革は、もっと困難であろう。多種ある個人税制の改革には、法人税制へほどは支持が無い。しかし、100万ドル以上の所得には最低限の税を課すことには幅広い支持がある。預貯金への税率を上げること、慈善事業への寄付や州市等税さらには抵当金利への税控除を削減すること、雇用主による健康保険へ課税すること、は多数の支持を得なかった。回答者は、税控除や免除を制限することには総論賛成であったが、各論には強い反応があった。)
• Carbon, not consumption, taxes are the best step forward. Carbon taxes are remarkably popular both as a separate revenue raiser and as part of a structural, revenue-neutral reform. In contrast, consumption taxes are quite unpopular and elicit the most spirited commentary, positive and negative, from our alumni. Several recently-proposed new ideas also receive support, including taxing non-C corporation business income, raising the cap on income subject to the payroll tax, and allowing for the deductibility of dividends at the corporate level.
• HBS alumni also strongly support spending reductions as a means to fiscal stability. Nearly one-third chose not only reduced spending, but also reduced taxation. MBA students are much more accepting of tax increases and less supportive of spending cuts.
• To achieve the right kinds of tax reform, leaders must begin to speak more realistically about the fiscal realities America faces. In addition, simplistic, polarizing, and protectionist rhetoric must be avoided. The time for tax reform is long overdue.
• Tax reform can also contribute directly to shared prosperity. The earned income tax credit (EITC) is probably the single most important innovation on the personal tax side over the last two decades. Simplification and expansion of the EITC is a promising direction for reform.

[Chapter 7] A failing political system
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• The U.S. political system was once the envy of many nations. Over the last two decades, however, it has become our greatest liability. Americans no longer trust their political leaders, and political polarization has increased dramatically. Americans are increasingly frustrated with the U.S. political system. Independents now account for 42% of Americans, a greater percentage than that of either major party.
(アメリカの政治システムは、以前は多くの国からの羨望の的だった。しかし、過去二十年以上、アメリカ最大の負の財産となった。アメリカ人はもはや自分達の政治リーダーを信じず、政治の二極化は劇的に増大した。…)
• The political system is no longer delivering good results for the average American. Numerous indicators point to failure to compromise and deliver practical solutions to the nation’s problems. Political polarization has especially made it harder to build consensus on sensible economic policies that address key U.S. weaknesses. It is at the root of our inability to progress on the consensus Eight-Point Plan.
(政治システムは、もはや普通のアメリカ人には良い結果をもたらさない。無数の指標が示すとおり、妥協の失敗、国の問題への実際的な解決策を提供できていない失敗、がある。政治の二極化は、アメリカの主要な弱みに取り組む賢明な経済政策に係るコンセンサスを形成するのを特に難しくしている。…)
• A large majority of HBS alumni believe the political system is obstructing U.S. economic growth and competitiveness. Many alumni who self-identified as Democrat or Republican blame the other party, but a sizable proportion also hold their own party responsible.
(…政治システムがアメリカの経済成長や競争力を妨害している。…民主党員か共和党員かを自己表明していると他党を責めるが、大きな割合の者達が自党に責任があるとも考えている。)
• Among the general public, many believe that the political system is obstructing economic progress. However, many Americans are unsure, which we attribute to the divisive and partisan dialog on the economy which has confused the public on many issues.
• There is strong support for political reform among surveyed alumni. Of six common proposals for political system reform, a strong majority of HBS alumni support five. The most supported reforms are gerrymandering reform and campaign finance reform.
• Among the general public, the top two political reforms supported are term limits for the House and Senate and campaign finance reform. However, a large percentage of the general public are unsure about which reforms they favor.
• Overall, we believe that dysfunction in America’s political system is now the single most important challenge to U.S. economic progress. Many Americans are keenly aware that the system is broken, but are unsure why it is broken or how to fix it. While there is rising frustration with politics, there is, as yet, no framework for understanding the reasons for today’s poor performance and proposing effective solutions. Identifying such a framework, and the set of reforms that can change the trajectory of our political system, has become a crucial priority.
(… 政治システムが壊れている、と多くのアメリカ人が痛切に感じているが、何故壊れているかどうやって直せるかは分かっていない。政治への不満は高まっているが、今日の貧弱な成果の理由を理解し効果的な解決策を提案する仕組みは無い。…)

Australia オーストラリア Vol.4

(All the below links are in English.)

オーストラリア中央銀行 Reserve Bank of Australia の 2016年第2四半期 Bulletin June Quarter 2016 | @RBAInfo をご紹介します。

1. Household Wealth in Australia: Evidence from the 2014 HILDA Survey | Paul Ryan and Tahlee Stone(オーストラリア国民の家計の財産状態)

[概要abstract]
This article uses data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey* to assess how the distribution of wealth changed for Australian households between 2010 and 2014. Average household wealth increased modestly over that period, driven mainly by growth in the value of financial assets, most notably superannuation. The growth of housing wealth was slow in comparison, particularly in Queensland and Western Australia. While most of the changes in wealth were broadly based across households, wealth increased more rapidly for those residing in New South Wales and for retired households with large holdings of superannuation and equity assets.
(本論文は、オーストラリア家計収入労働関係性HILDA調査のデータを使って、2010年から2014年の間のオーストラリア国民の富の分配の変化を評価している。この期間、主に、金融資産価値、最も知られているものでは退職年金の増加によって、平均的な家計の富は緩やかに増加した。特にクイーンズランド州や西オーストラリア州では伸びは鈍い一方、ニューサウスウェールズ州では急速に伸びた。)
** Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA)
*** Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey of Income and Housing (SIH)

[補足・抜粋/excerpts]
Introduction
… As the general distribution of household wealth (i.e. total assets minus total debts) across, these categories is broadly the same in 2014 as it was in 2010, this article focuses on how the distribution of housing assets (including investment properties), non-housing assets (predominately superannuation) and household debt have changed between 2010 and 2014.
The HILDA Survey* data suggest that the average Australian household had total wealth of around $740 000 in 2014. Measures of real (inflation adjusted) wealth per household from the HILDA Survey grew a little less over the decade to 2014 than measures based on household-level data from the SIH*** and distributional wealth indicators from the ABS that are consistent with aggregate data from the ASNA** (Graph 1).
graph12
Looking at the cross-sectional distribution of household wealth, older and higher-income households tend to have higher levels of wealth (Graph 2). …

Household Wealth
Overall, almost 60 per cent of households in the HILDA Survey had more real wealth in 2014 than was the case in 2010. Households with the lowest levels of wealth in 2010 saw the most growth of wealth over the four years to 2014 (Graph 3). This partly reflects the fact that low-wealth households are generally young and are just starting to build wealth. …
graph3

… most of the increase in wealth over the 2010–14 period came from growth in the value of non-housing assets, which are predominantly financial assets such as superannuation, equities and deposits (Graph 4). …
graph4

… Households in New South Wales and Victoria saw the largest increase in wealth, with growth in both housing and non-housing assets, while households in Queensland and Western Australia saw the biggest decrease in wealth, on average, mainly owing to a fall in the value of housing assets. The other states and territories generally saw relatively little growth in wealth over the period. The outcomes for households in Queensland and Western Australia are likely to have been influenced by the decline in commodity prices and the mining investment boom following the peak, which occurred between 2010 and 2014. …

Housing Assets
Housing is the largest asset class on Australian households’ balance sheets, accounting for around 60 per cent of total assets. Over any given period, growth in housing assets can be due to a change in housing prices or a change in the stock of housing held by Australian households. …Looking more closely across the states reveals large differences in the mean and median values of housing assets (Graph 5). …
graph5

… the share of households that either became home owners for the first time or upgraded their main residence decreased relative to the 2006–10 period (Graph 6). …Households in New South Wales and Victoria were slightly more likely to increase their holdings of other property than was the case from 2006 to 2010.
graph67

Household Debt
… High-income households hold the majority of debt. The top income quintile held almost 50 per cent of the stock of household debt in 2014. Almost a third of households held no debt, with the majority of these being retired households.
Over the four years to 2014, about 40 per cent of households increased their levels of nominal debt, while a similar share of households reduced their holdings of debt (Graph 7). …

Property debt accounted for a little over 80 per cent of the stock of debt held by households in 2014. Average debt increased modestly from 2010 to 2014, by a little more than 2 per cent per year (Graph 8). …
graph89

Non-housing Assets
… The mean value of real non-housing assets increased from around $320,000 in 2010 to almost $400,000 in 2014 (Graph 9). … Wealthier households held a higher-than-average share of assets in the form of direct equity holdings and business assets, while households with lower net wealth held more in cash and deposits, superannuation and durable goods (Graph 9).

The mean superannuation balance grew by around 4 per cent per annum in real terms for all households over the period to $250,000 in 2014 (Graph 10). … The noticeably stronger growth in median superannuation assets relative to the mean for households aged 45 to 64 years suggests that the ‘typical’ (or median) household in these age groups are building up superannuation assets faster in the lead-up to retirement than the households in the same age group with the largest balances of superannuation (Graph 10).
graph10

Conclusion
… The main driver of growth in household wealth over that period was an increase in the value of financial assets, mostly superannuation assets. Weaker growth in housing wealth, with declines in Queensland and Western Australia, contributed to the slower growth in total wealth from 2010–14. …

2. Conditions in the Manufacturing Sector | Sean Langcake(製造業界の現状)

[概要abstract]
Manufacturing output and employment have fallen steadily as a share of the Australian economy for the past three decades. This article looks at the composition of the sector and draws on the Reserve Bank’s liaison with manufacturers to provide an insight into some of their responses to the structural challenges in recent years. According to liaison, the increase in the supply of manufactured goods from low-cost sources abroad, exacerbated by the appreciation of the Australian dollar during the period of rising commodity prices, impaired the viability of many domestic manufacturers and precipitated the closure of some manufacturing production over the past decade. While the recent exchange rate depreciation has helped to improve competitiveness of Australian producers, so far there is only limited evidence of a recovery in manufacturing output and investment.
(オーストラリア経済において、製造業の生産と雇用は、過去三十年着実に低下してきている。ここでは、近年の経済構造の変化への製造業者の対応を洞察する。コモディティ価格上昇期に豪ドル高となったため、低コスト製品が海外から流入し、それがオーストラリア国内製造業者の価値を損ない、過去十年の製造業者閉鎖を促進した。最近の為替レート低下によりオーストラリア製造業者の競争力は改善されている一方、製造業者の生産と投資が回復してきている証拠はまだ限定的である。)

[補足・抜粋/excerpts]
Introduction
… It currently accounts for around 7 per cent of total output and employment. … over the 2000s, strong Asian demand for Australian commodities led to a sharp increase in the terms of trade and an appreciation of the Australian dollar. …

Manufacturing in Australia
Manufacturing output increased steadily throughout most of the 1990s before plateauing in the early 2000s; output today is around the same level it was just over a decade ago (Graph 1). … Over the past two decades, the Australian economy as a whole has grown considerably, resulting in a marked decline in manufacturing output as a share of total output. Employment in manufacturing has also declined over the past two decades, with growth in labour productivity in line with that of the economy as a whole. …
…investment in the manufacturing sector has also fallen steadily since its peak in 2005/06 (Graph 1). …
graph_1

Australia’s manufacturing sector is quite diverse and is comprised of several sub-industries, the largest being: food, beverage & tobacco; machinery & equipment; petroleum, coal & chemicals; and metal products (Graph 2). …
graph_2

The food, beverage & tobacco and metal products sub-industries both rely heavily on inputs from primary industries (agriculture and mining) where Australia has an abundant supply, and use a relatively low share of intermediate components that are imported. …
Conversely, the machinery & equipment and petroleum, coal & chemicals sub-industries use relatively few inputs from primary industries in Australia and have a relatively high share of imported intermediate components. …
table_1

The International Context
Over the past 25 years, most advanced economies have seen their manufacturing sectors recede as a share of both output and employment, although Australia has generally had a lower share than many other advanced economies (Graph 3).
graph_3

The ratio of value added to total production in the Australian manufacturing sector is broadly comparable to that in other advanced economies’ manufacturing industries (Table 2). Relative to other Australian industries, manufacturing is a low value-added sector; the ratio of value-added to total production (29 per cent) is the lowest of any industry. …
table_2

… The steady increase in China’s share of Australia’s merchandise imports has coincided with a fall in the prices of imported manufactured goods relative to domestic production (Graph 4).
graph_4

The Australian Dollar and Implications for Competitiveness
The appreciation of the Australian dollar from 2000 to 2013 worked against the international competitiveness of Australian manufacturing (Graph 4). Exports of Australian manufactured goods grew slowly over this period as they became relatively more expensive overseas (Graph 5). …
graph_5

… Typically, contacts maintain some productive capacity in Australia, either as a testing or research and development (R&D) facility, to protect their more sensitive intellectual property, or to be able to fill orders more quickly. Nevertheless, firms that have ‘offshored’ production typically have much less productive capacity remaining in Australia than their overseas operations. …
…there are significant lags between a depreciation of the dollar and a response in manufacturing production and exports due to the nature of supply chains. For instance, even though domestic producers have become more competitive against imported products, retailers or other manufacturers may have contracts that secure supply in advance, which inhibits their ability to switch to domestically produced products. …
…they responded to the appreciation of the dollar by importing more goods, either by choice or necessity as production of some inputs had moved offshore. … while the lower value of the dollar aids demand, margins are under pressure due to rising import costs in instances where local substitutes are not readily available.

Domestic Input Costs and Implications for International Competitiveness
… Australian manufacturing labour costs appear to be relatively high compared with those in other economies – a feature that has become more pronounced over time (Graph 6). …
graph_67

…firms have been looking to find labour productivity gains by automating some production processes. They have also been developing new products to diversify their offering. These shifts are borne out in the nature of firms’ investments; increasingly, manufacturers are investing in intellectual property rather than physical capital (Graph 7). …

…foreign-owned manufacturing firms operating in Australia are more willing to invest in R&D than physical capital in their Australian subsidiaries, although it is difficult to quantify what share of manufacturing activity is accounted for by these firms. …

Difficulties Integrating in Supply Chains
…other economies have responded to pressure from cheaper, imported manufactured goods by integrating themselves more effectively into increasingly fragmented global supply chains. … Australia’s geographic isolation contributes to high trade costs and presents a significant impediment to greater participation in global supply chains. …the costs of trading Australia’s manufactured goods – largely international transport costs – are in the order of 20–25 per cent higher than the global average. … only 4 per cent of manufacturing firms are part of an integrated supply chain.
…Australia’s relatively high trade costs leave domestic producers primarily exposed to the relatively small domestic market and unable to benefit from the scale advantages that other advanced economies achieve through production for larger domestic markets and export markets. …around 45 per cent of the difference between US and Australian non-farm labour productivity levels can be explained by Australia’s geographic isolation. High trade costs may also protect less productive domestic firms from import competition, although this protection is likely to have been eroded through time by lower international search and transaction costs. …

Conclusion( )内は抄訳
The depreciation of the Australian dollar over recent years has helped to improve the competitiveness of Australian manufacturing. Additionally, there is likely to be a steady level of activity in the food, beverages & tobacco sub-industry due to Australia’s comparative advantage in primary resources and growing export demand. Against this, softer demand from the mining sector and the cessation of passenger vehicle production will weigh on output, although motor vehicle and transport equipment production currently makes up only around 5 per cent of manufacturing output.
(豪ドル安は製造業の競争力を向上させてきた。食品飲料煙草が伸びた反面、鉱業の鈍い伸びや乗客用乗物の製造中止は今後製造に重くのし掛かるであろう。)
In the longer term, the structural challenges facing the Australian manufacturing sector are likely to constrain output. Declining global prices for manufactured goods and the sustained high level of the Australian dollar during the resource investment boom impaired the viability of many Australian manufacturers and precipitated considerable structural change in the sector, with numerous manufacturers either closing or shifting production to lower-cost economies. R&D operations are one area where Australia’s cost disadvantages are less of an impediment and our highly skilled workforce is a comparative advantage. Although R&D investment has been growing steadily, the subsequent demand for labour and, in particular, physical capital are likely to be less than was generated by ‘traditional’ manufacturing activities.
(長期的には、オーストラリア製造業の構造的課題は製造を抑える。製造業の製品の世界的な価格低下と、資源ブームの間高止まりした豪ドルは、オーストラリアの多くの製造業者の生命力を削ぎ、廃業か低コスト国での生産へのシフトにより製造業界の構造変化を早めた。R&Dはオーストラリアのコスト面での不利がさほど問題にならない分野であり、熟練度の高い労働力が比較優位となっている。R&Dへの投資の伸びは堅調であるが、R&Dにおける引き続く労働力の需要ととりわけ物的資本の需要は’伝統的’製造業における需要よりは少なそうである。)

Crisis Management 危機管理 Vol.2

(The below link is in English.)

危機管理は、国家的緊急事態については平時の防災と事態発生後72時間以降の復旧対応の間の事態発生後72時間以内の対処であり、また、国家的緊急事態以外でも事態発生後早い段階での対処を意味します。したがって防災は標題の危機管理には直接は当たりませんが、防災・復旧は危機管理と一体的に平時より十分に準備しておく必要があることから、随時ここで触れていくこととなります。

今日は、ニュージーランドのクライストチャーチ市経済インフラ状況レポートの最新版 Latest Christchurch Economic Infrastructure Situation Report online (see PDF) | @CDCChristchurch @ChristchurchCC @SCIRT_info (#Chch #CDEM #lgnz #ECan #CHC_Airport #ChorusNZ #ufbnz #OrionNZ…) をごく簡単にご紹介します。2011年カンタベリー地震等による被害からの復旧等が記載されており、PDFの総論 General context(p9-21)、水 Water(p23,30,32,34-39)、交通 Transport(p48-50,52-66)、通信 Communications(p72-76,78-79)、エネルギー Energy(p84,87-89,91-94)に本Christchurch市の、その他のページに広域周辺地域及び国の、現状や政策等が記されています。以下、PDF内の図表をいくつか貼っておきます。

CDEM
Game Changers

Water Supply Damage
Wastewater Damage

NZ Transport Networks
Road Damage
Roads Significance
Expenditure
Rail Traffic
Lyttleton Port

Enable Networks
Tasman Global

Energy
Pet Storage

Authorities
Rebuild
Zones
Implementing
Distribution

ツイッター paper.li Vol.3

All the below links are in English.

弊社ツイッターアカウントの一つ @WSjp_insight のRTによるpaper.li掲載記事5件を貼っておきます。

Brexit is already proving to be a huge victory for global free trade | @LSolomonTweets

A chocolate bar from Canada won 1st prize | @RCInet

About Renewable Energy | @NRCan

This year, Oscar speaks with an Irish accent | @BarryODowd_Irl

San Diego to become largest U.S. city to run on 100% renewable energy | @envirojourno @inhabitat

Canada カナダ Vol.3

(Most of the links in 1. are in Japanese, and those in 2. are in English.)

日本・カナダ間の貿易・投資関連概観 及び カナダ連邦及び各州の主要経済分野 です。

1. 日加経済 平成28年2月4日 の カナダ経済と日加経済関係 (PDF) p.3,4,9,10,11 に日加間貿易・投資関連データが掲載されています。
日本からカナダへの輸出は
輸送用機器(自動車を含む)、一般機械、電気機器など、
日本のカナダからの輸入は
菜種、金属鉱、石炭・コークス及びれん炭、木材及びコルク、肉類及び同調製品、穀物及び同調製品、医薬品、魚介類及び同調製品など、
です。
 また、日加首脳会談 平成28年5月24日 の 3(3) にあるとおり、インフラ、エネルギー、科学技術、ビジネス環境・投資、観光・学生交流の5分野に焦点を当て両国間の協力を進めることとされています。

ほか参考:
カナダ(Canada) 基礎データ 平成28年2月23日
世界のインフラは量のみならず質も重視する時代へ(動画)(平成28年5月19日)
「質の高いインフラ輸出拡大イニシアティブ」(首相官邸ホームページへリンク)(平成28年5月23日)(PDF)
質の高いインフラ投資の推進のためのG7伊勢志摩原則 (PDF)
カナダの基礎情報 | 海外建設・不動産市場データベース
原子力安全セキュリティ・グループ(NSSG)報告書 (PDF)
自動走行車・燃料電池自動車プレゼンテーション 平成28年5月26日
競争力の優位性 | The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service
SR&ED優遇税制 | The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service
“Policy Package for Promoting Foreign Direct Investment into Japan to Make Japan a Global Hub” (May 20, 2016)(PDF:115KB)
“Five Promises for Attracting Foreign Businesses to Japan” (March 17, 2015) (PDF:90KB)
日・カナダ科学技術協力 平成25年2月1日
投資/科学技術 | @CanEmbJapan

2. カナダ各州の主要経済分野に係る情報は、例えば、以下のものがあります。
(1)オンタリオ州 Ontario
 Industries | @InvestOntario(頁下部)では、Aerospace、Automotive、Chemical and biochemical、Financial services、Food and beverage manufacturing、Industrial Automation and Robotics、Information technology、Life sciences、Mining、Tourism、Water technology の11分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて多くの情報が掲載されています。

(2)ブリティッシュコロンビア州 British Columbia
 産業セクター | @BCTradeInvest では、農業食品、林業、鉱業、天然ガス、テクノロジー、観光、運輸 の7分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて主な利点、概略、統計、支援、インセンティブ、サクセスストーリー、インフラなどの項目が立てられ、多くの情報が掲載されています。

(3)ケベック州 Quebec
 INDUSTRIES | @InvestQuebec では、AEROSPACE、AGRI-FOOD、GROUND TRANSPORTATION、INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES、LIFE SCIENCES、MICROELECTRONICS、MINING、MULTIMEDIA の8分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて多くの情報が掲載されています。

(4)アルバータ州 Alberta
 AlbertaCanada.com (@YourAlberta) では、 「アルバータ州の産業に関する詳しい情報は、以下をご覧ください。」とされて、航空宇宙・防衛機器、農業・畜産食品、建築製品・技術、工学・建造技術、環境製品・サービス、金融サービス、工業製造、情報通信技術、生命科学、物流と市場へのアクセス、原油・ガス、精製、石油化学、生化学製品、観光の13分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要が説明されています。

(5)マニトバ州 Manitoba
 Growth, Enterprise and Trade | @MBGov では、Key Industry Sectors として Aerospace、Agribusiness: Food Processing、Agribusiness Manufacturing & Technology、Building Products、Education、Electricity、Environmental Industries、Financial Services、Heavy Vehicle Manufacturing、Information & Communications Technologies & Media、Mining, Minerals & Petroleum、Retail、Tourism、Transportation & Logistics の14分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要等が掲載されています。

(6)サスカチュワン州 Saskatchewan
 OUR KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS | @SKGov では、”The sectors listed below have been identified as having the most potential for economic growth.” とされて、Agriculture & Agri-Value、Energy、Forestry、Life Sciences & Biomass、Manufacturing、Minerals の6分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要説明やまとめPDF等が掲載されています。

(7)ニューファンドランド・ラブラドール州 Newfoundland and Labrador
 Supporting Business Sectors | Department of Business, Tourism, Culture and Rural Development @GovNL では、”Strategic sector development focuses on the development and implementation of industry strategies to take advantage of new business opportunities. The department works closely with industry, economic development groups, the federal and provincial governments to develop and implement strategies that support the growth and diversification of strategic sectors.” とされて、Aerospace and Defence、Agrifoods、Craft and Gift、Environmental Industries、Information and Communications Technology、Life Sciences/Biotechnology、Manufacturing、Ocean Technology and Arctic Opportunities の8分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要が掲載されています。

(8)プリンスエドワードアイランド州  Prince Edward Island
 STRATEGIC SECTORS | @Innovation_PEI (@InfoPEI) では、”Prince Edward Island is developing a solid reputation as the location of choice for many leading international companies. Regardless of sector, we have a variety of financial supports and services to support the Island’s economic growth. Since the early 1990’s, the province’s economy has undergone considerable growth particularly in high knowledge sectors such as: Aerospace and defence, Bioscience, and Information communications technology. As these sectors have grown, our need for primary industries has faded. There is little to suggest these trends will not continue. Along with these trends and our province’s economic strategy, we are focusing on five main growth sectors: ” とされて、Information and Communications Technology、BIO Science、Aerospace and Defence、Renewable Energy、Financial & Business Services、Marine の6分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要説明やビデオ等が掲載されています。その後、社会的・経済的に成長している分野として、Advanced Manufacturing and Processing including value-added food development and production、Financial Services、Small Business が挙げられています。

ほか参考:
TradeTeamPEI
Invest PEI

(9)ノバスコシア州 Nova Scotia
 Our Growth Sectors | @NSBI では、Agriculture and Agri-Food、Clean Technology、Defence, Security & Aerospace、Digital Media、Financial Services、Information Communications Technology、Life Sciences、Manufacturing、Ocean Technology の9分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて企業・組織名を挙げた概要説明等が掲載されています。@NSBI は、
@ns_dob  の一番下に紹介されています。
 また、Industry Sectors | @hfxnovascotia では、Oceans、Life Sciences、Aerospace & Defence、Finance & Insurance、Education の5分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要説明やビデオ等が掲載されています。

(10)ニューブランズウィック州  New Brunswick
 rebuilding New Brunswick [PDF] | @Gov_NB では、Aerospace and Defence、Biosciences、Information and Communications Technology、Industrial Fabrication、Value-Added Food、Value-Added Wood の6分野が2012-16年の経済成長重点分野として挙げられています。また、Industry | @Gov_NB では、Forestry、Fishing、Mining、Construction、Manufacturing、Food Service の6分野が挙げられています。

(11)ユーコン準州  Yukon
 Priority Sectors | @InvestYukon では、Film and Sound、Forestry、 Innovation and Technology、Mining and Exploration、Oil and Gas、Tourism and Culture の6分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要説明等多くの情報が掲載されています。

(12)ノースウェスト準州 Northwest Territories
 Sectors | Industry, Tourism and Investment @ Government of the Northwest Territories では、”There are ten areas of focus identified by the Department for which programs and services are delivered directly or indirectly: ” とされて、Business and Economic Development、Traditional Economy、Tourism、Parks、Mines & Minerals、Diamonds、Oil & Gas、Arts, Crafts, and Film、Agriculture & Fisheries、NWT Geological Survey の10分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて概要説明等多くの情報が掲載されています。

(13)ヌナブト準州 Nunavut
 Department of Executive and Intergovernmental Affairs @GOVofNUNAVUT では、Economy として Mineral Exploration and Mining、Traditional Harvesting、Fisheries、Tourism、Inuit art の5分野が挙げられています。

(14) なお、Explore Canada | The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service にも、Sector Strengths(主要経済分野)も含めたカナダ各州・都市の経済情勢等が掲載されています。

3. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (@MinisterISED) で “Export” “Import” と “Invest in Canada” について調べることができます。
 後者については、”It’s no wonder that Canada is a recognized world leader in many industries” とされて、Aerospace、Automotive(工場一覧にホンダ及びトヨタの記載有り)、Information and Communications Technologies、Shipbuilding の4分野が挙げられ、それぞれにおいて企業や政策の紹介、また、検索コーナーなどが掲載されています。
 前者については、- Search by product において検出された2015年の、カナダの輸出先国及び金額、カナダの輸入元国及び金額、13(準含む)各州から日本への最大輸出品目及び金額 を以下貼っておきます。
Canada export 2015Canada import 2015
Ontario largest to Japan 2015
BC largest to Japan 2015
Quebec largest to Japan 2015
Alberta largest to Japan 2015
Manitoba largest to Japan 2015
Sask largest to Japan 2015
NL largest to Japan 2015
PEI largest to Japan 2015
NS largest to Japan 2015
NB largest to Japan 2015
Yukon largest to Japan 2015
NWT largest to Japan 2015
Nunavut largest to Japan 2015

New Zealand ニュージーランド Vol.2

3点ご紹介します。

1. @NZTEnews (New Zealand Trade & Enterprise ニュージーランド貿易経済促進庁) annual report 2014/15 [PDF] は、同庁の2014/15年の年次レポートです。具体的数字を挙げた要点(p.2)は、以下のとおり。
・ 2014年には、NZTEと提携する企業を増やし国際的ネットワークを創るために、4年以上に亘り6900万ドルの追加投資をすることを決めた。(… In 2014, as part of the Business Growth Agenda (BGA), the Government committed an additional investment of $69m over four years, targeted at increasing the number of companies we work with and growing our international network. …)
・ また、2014/15年には、我々のF700(*1)の顧客たる企業の国際収益は、2013/14年から67億ドル増の340億ドルであった。前年より3億ドル以上増の11億ドルの収益を顧客企業と共に新規輸出において産み出し、また、91%の顧客企業がF700による付加価値を認めた。 14.5億ドルの直接的な経済的インパクトの可能性のある、8億6600万ドルの資本の展開を手助けした。(… In 2014/15, international revenue for customers in our F700 portfolio was $34b, up $6.7b from last year, with a portfolio growth rate of 8.7%. We worked with customers to generate $1.1b in new export deals, over $300m more than last year, and 91% of our customers said that we added value to their business. To support growth, we helped deploy $866m of capital, with a potential direct economic impact for New Zealand of $1.45b. …)
* NZ政府と企業が連携して国際展開を図るスキームであり、700社が対象。参考:https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/how-nzte-can-help/
※ なお、ニュージーランド外交貿易省(@mfat:Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade)の2014/15年次レポート(NZTEレポートとは特に具体的には関連付けられてはいない)は、https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/_securedfiles/MFAT-Corporate-publications/MFAT-Annual-Report-2014-2015.pdf

2. Regions of opportunity – Find out which New Zealand region matches your investment interests by comparing each region’s sector strengths and how these are supported by the region’s workforce, raw materials, services and infrastructure. [PDF] | @NZTEnews は、同庁が投資の観点から各地方を紹介しています(2014年7月)。主な投資考慮対象等は、以下のとおり。
・ ノースランド地方: 造船(p.3)、木材(p.4)、養殖漁業(p.5)。日本企業 Juken New Zealand Ltd が紹介されている(p.6)。
・ オークランド地方: 情報通信(p.11)、食品加工(p.12)、農業技術・海洋・航空等の高額製造業(p.13)。日本企業 Asahi が紹介されている(p.14)。
・ ワイカト地方: 様々な高額製造業(p.19)、ロジスティクス(p.20)、付加価値日用品(p.21)。
・ ベイオブプレンティ地方: 高品質で費用効果の良い木材(p.27)、チタン製造や海洋エンジニアリングなどの高額製造業(p.28)、アボガドやキウイフルーツなどの食料(p.29)。
・ ギズボーン地方: 木材(p.35)、羊・牛/穀物/単一品種白ワイン(p.36)、食品・飲料製造(p.37)。 日本企業 Cedenco Foods New Zealand Ltd 及び Juken New Zealand Ltd が紹介されている(p.38)。
・ ホークスベイ地方: 園芸/牛・羊/ブドウ栽培/野菜など(p.43)、果物・野菜加工/ワイン製造など(p.44)、事務所サービス(p.45)。日本企業 Oji Holdings Corporation が紹介されている(p.46)。
・ マナワツ・ワンガヌイ地方: アグリビジネス(p.51)、食料イノベーション(p.52)、コンタクトセンター(p.53)。日本企業 Toyota が紹介されている(p.54)。
・ タラナキ地方: 原油・天然ガス(p.59)、肉類・食品添加物など(p.60)、石油化学などエンジニアリング(p.61)。日本企業との企業 ANZCO Foods が紹介されている(p.62)。
・ ウェリントン地方: 映像産業(p.67)、デジタル技術(p.68)、コンタクトセンター(p.69)。日本企業 Fujitsu New Zealand 及び Juken New Zealand Ltd が紹介されている(p.70)。
・ ネルソン・タスマン・マールボロ地方: ワイン・りんご/緑イ貝養殖など(p.75)、海洋・航空エンジニアリング(p.76)、付加価値木材製品(p.77)。 日本企業 Nelson Pine Industries が紹介されている(p.78)。
・ ウェストコースト地方: 鉱物(p.83)、山羊・乳製品/園芸(フェイジョア・クランベリー・ブルーベリー・カラーリリー)(p.84)、観光(p.85)。
・ カンタベリー地方: 食品加工・農業技術研究など(p.91)、健康・農業・ソフトウェアなど知識集約型産業(p.92)、建設・インフラ(p.93)。日本企業 Allied Telesis Labs 及び 日本企業出資企業 Synlait Milk が紹介されている(p.94)。
・ オタゴ地方: デザイン技術・高額製造業(p.99)、観光・エコツーリズム(p.100)、果物・ワイン(p.101)。
・ サウスランド地方: 食品(食肉・オーツミルク・大麦・小麦)・飲料(p.107)、鉱物・金属部品(p.108)、宇宙産業(p.109)。日本企業 Otsuka Diatranz 及び 日本企業出資企業 New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) が紹介されている(p.110)。

3. NEW ZEALAND ECONOMICS: @ANZ_NZ ECONOMIC OUTLOOK “ROLLING WITH THE PUNCHES” [PDF](2016年7月)では、ニュージーランド経済の現況が説明されています。要点は以下のとおり。
・ 国内経済(p.2-6): 好調持続、今後3年も3%弱の成長を維持できる見通し。酪農製品の輸出不調及びNZドル高によるマイナス効果を、酪農以外の輸出、建設、移民関連、住宅、サービス業、観光の好調が上回っている。(The New Zealand economy continues to perform well and we expect more of the same over the years ahead, with growth averaging close 3% per year over the next three years. Challenges in dairying and a high NZD are being outweighed by non-dairy exports, construction, migration, housing, services and tourism. Solid demand will see capacity constraints come more to the fore. …)
・ 国際経済(p.7): 日欧はどんよりした見通し、アメリカはよく闘い抜いている。(While our global growth forecasts depict a reasonable outlook, this masks considerable tension and risks. High leverage, investment misallocation and a populist-driven backlash against globalisation are a potent mix. Prospects for Europe and Japan are sombre. Emerging market economies, including China, face transitional challenges. The exception is the US, which is battling on nicely.)
・ 主要分野(p.8): 酪農(牛乳、羊肉、牛肉、羊毛)不調、園芸(ワイン、ピップフルーツ、キウイフルーツ)好調。この二極化は2016/17年も続く見通し。(The dichotomy across key primary sectors is expected to continue in 2016/17. The operating environment looks challenging for key livestock sectors. Dairy farmers are facing their third low payout year and second year of cash losses. Cuts in discretionary spend will continue. In the red meat and fibre sector there are knock-on impacts from dairying on arable and support prices. The reason for sheepmeat and venison price increases is lower New Zealand supply. In contrast, the main horticultural crops are on track to post near-record export volumes with solid prices lifting revenues and bottom-line returns.)
・ 金融市場(p.9-11): OCR(銀行間の資金取引に適用される翌日物貸出金利)下げが短期的になされるという見通しに気乗りしない。(We are lukewarm over prospects for the OCR moving lower in the short-term; amidst housing largesse the economy simply doesn’t need more easing right now. We expect the RBNZ to hold fire in August. Short-end interest rates are still biased lower over time, with more OCR cuts likely down the track. We see an elevated TWI and global risks ultimately bringing the RBNZ back to the easing table. The Brexit vote has created significant uncertainty, increased the likelihood of further easing in Europe, the UK and Japan, and side-lined the Fed. Against that backdrop, we expect the NZD and local interest rate markets to be well supported, in the absence of a meltdown across emerging markets (which, to be fair, is a key risk). Last quarter we were of the view that Fed tightening and RBNZ easing would see the curve steepen, but Brexit has turned that on its head; and we now expect global yield curves to flatten as markets adjust to a prolonged period of uncertainty and easy policy. )

Ireland アイルランド Vol.2

記事3件をご紹介します。

1. With Brexit, Ireland can’t keep up with flood of U.K. passport applications | @Quantanamo @MarketWatch では、Brexitを受けてイギリス国民からのアイルランドのパスポートに関する問い合わせ等がアイルランドの郵便局等関係各所に殺到している旨書かれています。
 理由は、第一に、EU域内での労働の自由と域外を含めた172ヵ国へのビザ無し又はアライバルビザ取得による旅行の権利(Holders of an Irish passport would have the freedom to work anywhere within the 28-member union and have the right to “visa-free or visa-on-arrival” travel to 172 countries around the world…)、第二に、アイルランド国民は国内在住でなければアイルランドには所得税を納めなくても良いという制度(Irish citizens are only liable for Irish income tax if they are resident there — as opposed to the U.S. citizen who is responsible for U.S. income tax regardless of their residence…)、とのことです。
 実際、イギリス国民の四分の一にはアイルランドの血が混じっており、関係のあるイギリス国民はアイルランド国民になるのは制度上少し易しいようです(If you were born outside Ireland to an Irish citizen who was born outside Ireland, you are entitled to become an Irish citizen, even if your parent derived Irish citizenship through marriage, adoption or naturalization and he/she was an Irish citizen at the time of your birth. If one of your grandparents is an Irish citizen who was born in Ireland, you may also become an Irish citizen, the Irish government said. If you were born on the island of Ireland…)。
 また、アイルランドと北アイルランドの “open borders” も維持されるよう努めるとも言われました(Ireland will do its utmost to protect the open borders between the British province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended three decades of sectarian violence between Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland known as The Troubles…)。
 尤も、短中期的にはBrexitがアイルランド経済にネガティブな影響を与えると言われるなど、アイルランド経済は不透明でもあります(While economists debate whether London-based financial firms will move thousands of jobs overseas, the future of Ireland’s still-fragile economy is also uncertain…)。

2. ‘A skilled and flexible workforce’ | Brian O’Gorman @IrishTimes では、アイルランドの労働力の質及び移動可能性や英米法体系などがアメリカからアイルランドへの投資を呼び込む旨書かれています。

3. IDA Ireland Reports Strong First Half to 2016 #WhyIreland (w PDFs) | @IDAIRELAND (アイルランド政府産業開発庁) では、昨日発表された2016年上半期のアイルランドへの対内直接投資のレポートにつきツイートされています。アイルランド史上最高レベルだった2015年上半期と同レベルとのことです。PDFの一部の図表も以下添付しておきます。
Across Country
Origin of Supported Companies
Economic Impact
Across Industries
Employment

なお、ライアンChairmanからは、添付PDF一つ目の4頁目にあるとおり、2015-19年の目標として「80,000 New Jobs; 900 Investments; A 30–40% increase in investments into regional locations; €3bn in R&D expenditure」と挙げられています。
また、シャナハンCEOからは、同5ー6頁目にあるとおり、具体的実績につき、
雇用については、「2015年にはIDAの顧客たる投資者(会社)が19,000弱の雇用を産み出した。雇用純増12,000弱で2014年の7,000強と比較すると66%増である。(The ability of Ireland to grow its FDI portfolio was clearly in evidence in 2015 – IDA client companies created just under 19,000 (18,983) jobs on the ground during the year across a range of sectors, with every region of Ireland posting net gains in jobs. Net jobs were 11,833 compared to 7,131 in the same time period last year – representing a year-on-year rise of 66%. Losses as a percentage of the overall employment portfolio were at their lowest level ever.」
顧客については、「投資件数は、2014年の197から2015年には213に増えた。新たに投資を始めた会社の数は、同88から同94となった。大口の投資をしている会社としては、アップル、セージ、ユーバー、プラメリカ、ノーザントラスト、エアビーアンドビー、リンクトイン、GEヘルスケア、メドトロニック、エスエーエス、ファイザー、ワークデイ、アムニールがある。(The number of investments won during the year rose to 213 from 197 in the previous year. The number of new name investments went to 94 from 88 in the previous year. The strong net job creation performance was the result of a very strong pipeline of new investments which materialised in 2015 and lower job losses within the employment portfolio. Among the client companies making significant investments during 2015 were Apple, Sage, Uber, Pramerica, Northern Trust, Air Bnb, LinkedIn, Slack, GE Healthcare, Medtronic, SAS, Pfizer, Workday and Amneal.)」
地域については、「IDA顧客の投資により新規雇用が産み出された地域は、2014年には49%であったが、2015年には53%となった。そして、その雇用数の59%がダブリンの外である。大きな地域プロジェクトとしては、ゴールウェイ州オランモアのジマー社、コーク州ファーモイのエイベック社、ティペラリー州カッシェルのアムニール社などがある。(Particularly noticeable in the 2015 project wins, were investments going into regional locations, with all regions of Ireland showing net employment gains in the year. The percentage of new jobs going to regions in 2015 was 53%. This had increased from 49% in 2014. 59% of IDA’s client company employment is now outside of Dublin. Outstanding regional projects in 2015, included Zimmer expanding its manufacturing hub in Oranmore, Galway, ABEC Inc in Fermoy, Co Cork building an engineering base and Amneal moving into Cashel, Co Tipperary.)」
とされています。

姉妹都市 Vol.3(Tripartite Economic Alliance ロサンゼルスLA=オークランドAK=広州GZ 三市経済連携)

今日は”サミット”の話、と言っても先月下旬の議長国日本・伊勢志摩G7の話ではありません。〔以下ツイッターリンクは中国の広州市Guangzhouも含めてEnglish、日本の各市町のホームページはそれぞれ。〕

ロサンゼルス市(LA、人口380万人、アメリカ。参考:@MayorOfLA 市長)・オークランド市(AK、市人口40万人強・都市圏人口150万人、ニュージーランド。参考:@Auckland_NZ 市役所)・広州市(GZ、人口1300万人、中国。参考:@Guangzhou_City 市役所)の相互に姉妹都市である三市による Tripartite Economic Summit 2016 三市経済サミット が先月中旬にオークランドで開催されました。21世紀の都市間交流のあり方を打ち立てるべく2014年11月に世界初の三市経済連携協定(Tripartite Economic Alliance agreement)が結ばれ、初回”サミット”が昨年6月にロサンゼルスで開催されたとのことです。

都市間交流・地域間交流は一対一・文化交流という形である印象がありますが、太平洋を跨いだ三大都市の継続的な経済連携枠組みで世界初というのは第一印象としてはインパクトがあります。もちろん細部を少しずつ継続的に理解して行く必要がありますが、民間企業が収益を上げるのに役に立つ経済連携の形を取れば地方公共団体にも(もちろん中央政府にも)予算的労働的に負担がかからないということは言えます。また、人間で言えば、二人の方が突っ込んだ内容を話せるけど三人以上の枠組みの方が派手だったり長持ちしたりもする(あくまで参考:下記※)、というような感じでしょうか。従来型交流と適宜並行して進むと良さそうです。
なお、上記三市の日本の姉妹都市は、ロサンゼルス市とは名古屋市(参考:名古屋市英語ホームページ)、オークランド市とは大阪市(参考:大阪市英語ホームページ)・福岡市(参考:福岡市英語ホームページ)・富岡町(友好都市。参考:福島県富岡町ホームページ。)・宇都宮市(参考:宇都宮市ホームページ)・品川区(参考:品川区英語ホームページ)、広州市とは福岡市、のようです。また、広州市の姉妹都市には、当都市経済連携には入っておらず、ニュージーランドとは隣国かつ同盟国であるオーストラリアのシドニー市(参考:@cityofsydney 市役所)もあり、先月で両市姉妹都市30年になり喜ばしいとの報道が何度か目に入ってきました。シドニー市の姉妹都市には日本の名古屋市もあります。

※ 各人が手抜き無しに努力を怠らないチームの人数は、例えばWhy Less Is More in Teams | Mark de Rond では、4人とされています。他方、適度な頑張りが必要となる姉妹都市経済連携のような組織間の持続的試みにおいては、検証等必要ですが、各者が一定程度以上望んでいれば3者というのが一番長持ちしそうだと第一感では思いました。