U.K. イギリス Vol.3(”Brexit”?? – UK’s Referendum on EU Membership イギリスEU残留国民投票 Vol.2)

Here is just a part of articles/videos concerning the Brexit on Twitter on 6 June (BST).

Pro-Europe MPs could defy Brexit poll victory | @michaelsavage @elliotttimes @BrunoBrussels
Pro-Europe MPs could defy Brexit poll victory | @michaelsavage @elliotttimes @BrunoBrussels

Pound plunges as polls point to Brexit momentum | @oliver_wright
Pound plunges as polls point to Brexit momentum: Cameron urges voters to register as Leave camp surges ahead | @oliver_wright
– Cameron urges voters to register as Leave camp surges ahead –

Brexit would not make £8bn available for the NHS | @TheIFS
Brexit would not make £8bn available for the NHS | @TheIFS
Michael Gove

Farage: Brexit Would Be ‘First Domino’ In Disintegration Of EU | @BreitbartLondon

Economics of Brexit | @JacobReesMogg @SkyNewsTonight

Leading bookmaker Coral has slashed the odds on the UK voting to leave EU | Robert Kellaway
– A LEADING bookmaker slashed the odds on the UK voting to leave EU after political punters continued to show their support for Leave. –

Pro-EU MPs could stage guerrilla campaign to reverse Brexit decision | @patrickwintour
– MPs could initiate ‘reverse Maastricht’ to minimise number of EU laws the UK pulls out of, or push for a second referendum –

Brexit would leave EU less liberal, less Atlanticist | @ReutersAyataylo

Sterling falls after polls suggest growing Brexit support | @andrewwalker167

UK EU referendum | @NCPoliticsEU

Brexit huge risk for German economy | @Isabel_Schnabel @winterbiz @dw_business

Will the UK leave the EU? Keeping track of the polls, bookmaker odds, and the financial markets |‏@Pete_Spence

Brexit Lords have a cheek to complain about EU democracy | @nick_clegg
– It is ridiculous for a group of unelected British peers to criticise the lack of accountability of EU institutions –
[Excerpt] …With more than 800 members, the House of Lords is only second to China’s National People’s Congress in size and is about as undemocratic: unique in Europe, its members can revise and amend the laws of the land without anyone actually being elected…
Yet this obvious inconsistency appears to have escaped Lord Lawson et al when they berate the EU as “profoundly undemocratic”. I find what they do every day in the House of Lords profoundly undemocratic too.
Similarly, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and the other Brexit ministers appear to be entirely untroubled that they serve in a Government that garnered no more than 24 per cent of the eligible vote…
… It took the EU almost 30 years, for instance, to agree a common definition of chocolate … A body that takes three decades to define chocolate can be described as many things — not least slow and bureaucratic — but an undemocratic conspiracy is hardly one of them…

@SirJohnRoyMajor on Brexit | @StrongerIn

Conservatives will stand up for Britain if the EU lets us down | @SteveBakerHW
[Excerpt] …David Cameron has been spectacularly successful in Europe. No other Prime Minister has secured a cut in the European Union budget.

Poll gives Brexit campaign lead of three percentage points | @DanielBoffey
– Opinium survey suggests remain camp has lost four points in two weeks, as Boris Johnson prepares to campaign on security –

Brexit and the union: Tug of war | @TheEconomist
– Brexit could lead to a second Scottish independence referendum. But the place to fret about most is Northern Ireland –
[Excerpt] …Remainers have tried to use the Scottish card to strengthen their hand in England by warning that Brexit would trigger a second independence referendum which…a resurgent Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) might win…
…a month ago it lost its overall majority in the Scottish parliament… And even if she were able to call a second referendum, Ms Sturgeon cannot risk it… The example of Quebec suggests that two lost votes…for decades…
…Oil prices are half as high as then, so an independent Scotland would face even bigger economic and fiscal difficulties. After Brexit, the EU might be more welcoming to a Scotland seeking membership, but it would still object to its keeping the pound instead of adopting the euro. And if a post-Brexit United Kingdom ended free movement of people from the EU, that might mean erecting a border between north and south…
…Farming matters more in Northern Ireland than on the mainland, and it depends more on EU subsidies. Links to Ireland are crucial: it takes 34% of Northern Irish exports…
Ireland is the EU country most worried about Brexit. Irish ministers regularly state their opposition… Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market, and… Dublin to London is the world’s second-busiest international air route…

U.K. イギリス Vol.2(UK’s Referendum on EU Membership イギリスEU残留国民投票 Vol.1)

イギリスのEU残留国民投票(6/23)は、“Why the UK should stay in a reformed EU” 首相と国民との対話集会 でのキャメロン首相の定性的な主張の大筋のとおり、統計の精緻な分析に基づき定量的な説得力を持たせるというのが困難な性質のものかと考えられます。

確かに、EU非加盟国であるノルウェー(参考:Norway & EU & EEA)が国民一人あたりいくら払ってEU市場に入り、いくら売り上げていくら利益が出ている、EU加盟していればそれぞれの額はこうなっている、などと聴衆に訴えられればベストであったとは考えます。しかし、上記性質に加えて、そもそも本来的には、現状をひっくり返すと良くなる点を具体的・明確に示す証明責任はひっくり返したい離脱派にあり、できなければ “論理的には” 離脱派の負けです。
とは言え、政治・投票ですから、論理的或いは科学的に正しい方が勝つとは限りません。そこで、その点を大いに考慮してだと思われますが、あくまでこのビデオ二回と今まで部分的に見た他の映像による個人的印象としては、今まで対峙した各党党首等より非論理的にムードで訴える点でも勝っているように感じます。

今月どのような動きになるか、そして、投票後に投票結果が及ぼす波状的・連鎖的影響も、適宜追って参ります。〔リンクは全てEnglish。UK’s referendum on EU membership | Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland に残っている文書も参考になります。〕

UK’s referendum on EU membership | Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland

Republic of Ireland アイルランド政府による隣国イギリスのEU残留国民投票(6/23)に係る投稿です。 @dfatirl

なお、同政府のニュースサービスである @merrionstreet には良いレポートが並んでいたようですが、非常にセンシティブな状況のためかリンク切れが多い印象です。それでも残っているものもありますし、著者や所属機関が分かりますので、ご覧ください。