“The Creation and Destruction of Value” 価値の創造と破壊 Vol.11

(All the below links are in English.)

Vol.11 パワーポリティクスの重要性(第5章-1)

 危機は、民主主義か専制政治かの実行可能性についての態度のみならず、支配的な国際秩序への適応についての態度も、変えさせてしまう。例えば、金融危機は、経済的オープンさから被るビジネス上の利益と、孤立した国家的協調組合主義(政府の経済政策の決定や執行の過程に企業や労働組合を参加させるシステム)における集合的な合意を形成するのを好む者達の、その力の均衡をひっくり返すかもしれない。

あくまで参考
Neo-Liberal Small States and Economic Crisis: Lessons for Democratic Corporatism (PDF) | BALDUR THORHALLSSON @uni_iceland & RAINER KATTEL @rainerkattel @TallinnTech
The Political Economy of Social Pacts: ‘Competitive Corporatism’ and European Welfare Reform | MARTIN RHODES @OxUniPress
FROM NATIONAL CORPORATISM TO TRANSNATIONAL PLURALISM: EUROPEAN INTEREST POLITICS AND THE SINGLE MARKET (PDF) | Wolfgang Streeck @KelloggInst

U.S.A. アメリカ Vol.4(US Vice Presidential Debate 10/4/2016 ー 副大統領候補テレビ討論会 et al.)

All the below links are in English. Excerpts are on our own.

標記討論会(於:@longwoodu)及び各種政策等に関する米加英豪シンクタンク等による記事の一部のリンク・抜粋を取り急ぎ以下貼っておきます。(本投稿一番下に私見を書きました。)

US Presidential Election 2016 Vol.2 (Who won the vice presidential debate? | @CNNPolitics)

2016 VICE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: WHY THESE TWO KEY QUOTES ARE SO IMPORTANT | JUSTIN BUCHLER @CWRU_Polisci @KyleKopko @Newsweek
… Pence, unlike Trump, has always been a conservative hardliner, particularly on issues like abortion. The challenge that this creates is that most voters don’t share his views. Consider the following data from the 2012 American National Election Studies survey. While 45.7 percent of respondents said that women should always be able to attain an abortion as a matter of personal choice, only 11.5 percent said that abortion should never be permitted. …
… Political conflicts can be defined by “lines of cleavage,” Schattschneider wrote. If you want to win, draw the line of cleavage in a place that is beneficial to you, by placing as many people as possible on your side. If you oppose abortion for rape victims (as Pence does), don’t talk about it. …

POLL: Who Won the Vice-Presidential Debate? | @Olivia_Stacey @HeavySan

Mike Pence falls short…of an impossible task | @JohnJHudak
What Pence needed to do
What Tim Kaine needed to do
Don’t blame Mike Pence
Why tonight doesn’t matter
Why tonight’s debate might matter

Pence triumphs in VP debate. And then there was the night’s biggest loser… | @hooverwhalen @fxnopinion

6 things Trump definitely said that Pence claimed he didn’t | @henrycjjackson @politico

Mike Pence Defends Refugee Plan Blocked by Judges | @m_rhodan @TIME

VP debate: Tim Kaine calls Donald Trump ‘maniac’ who could cause nuclear war in tense showdown with Mike Pence | @DavidLawler10

Kaine and Pence to Square Off on Security as Trump Stirs Outrage With PTSD Comments | @MOLLYMOTOOLE‏ @ForeignPolicy

VP Debate: Coming Out of the Shadows | William Harbour @longwoodu @HuffPostBlog

Insiders: Trump will sink Pence in VP debate | @POLITICO_Steve @politico
– ‘Is it just me or are the two VP candidates infinitely more appealing than their running mates?’ said a Pennsylvania Republican.

Vice Presidential Debates Have Mattered Before. Here’s A Look Back | @NPRrelving @nprpolitics

The Fight with ISIS: One Year (and Counting) of Unauthorized War (w Video featuring Sen. Tim Kaine) | @CatoFP

WHY THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE DOES AND DOESN’T MATTER | @JohnCassidy @NewYorker

COMMENTARY: Compare candidates on economy | @DeanBaker13 @cpsj @ceprdc
… This background is important since, in most areas, Clinton would continue and extend policies put in place by Obama, while Trump would reverse them. Starting with taxes, Obama restored the Bill Clinton-era tax rates on high income people. Hillary Clinton has proposed modest further increases in tax rates on the highest income households.
By contrast, Trump has proposed large tax cuts that would disproportionately benefit the richest people in the country. He would go back to the Bush-era tax rates on the very wealthy. This would reduce the taxes on the richest 1 percent by an average of more than $120,000 a year and the richest 0.1 percent by more than $700,000 a year.
He would also eliminate the estate tax, a tax that affects less than 0.2 percent of estates. In addition, he would cut the top corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent. Trump’s tax cuts are projected to add $4 trillion to the debt over the next decade.
Clinton wants to keep and extend the Affordable Care Act. She has indicated she wants to make the subsidies in the health care exchanges more generous and give people the option of joining a Medicare-type public plan. She also wants to reduce the cost of prescription drugs by allowing imported drugs and also for Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices.
Trump has said he wants to repeal the ACA as one of his first acts as president. He says that he will replace it, but has not given any specifics.
Trump has also made a big point of saying that he wants to increase U.S. oil, coal and gas production by reducing regulation. It is worth noting that domestic oil and gas production both increased by more than 20 percent under Obama. Coal production is down, but largely because it can’t compete with cheaper alternatives.
Trump has also been eager to claim that he doesn’t believe in global warming and will do nothing to stop it. Clinton accepts the scientific consensus that global warming is a serious threat and will attempt to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Trump has also complained that the Federal Reserve Board is keeping interest rates too low, implying that he would appoint people who would raise rates and slow the economy. Clinton would presumably appoint people who are more committed to supporting growth and job creation. …

Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and the Economy | @DeanBaker13 @InsideSourcesDC

History is clear—high tariffs and trade wars devastate countries | Fred McMahon @FraserInstitute

Clinton Estate Tax Plan Would Affect Many Families, Not Just the Very Rich | @PatrickTyrrell1 & Michael Arango @Heritage @DailySignal

Climate Change Can’t Get Traction In This Election, But Clean Energy Can | @JeffMcMahon_Chi @forbes

Compare the Candidates | @CFR_org
– See where the next Commander-in-Chief wants to steer the United States on the most pressing foreign policy issues.
– Who Are the Vice Presidential Candidates?

Clinton and Trump: Commanders-in-Half | Gary Schmitt & James Cunningham @AEI @RealClearNews

Donald Trump’s sycophant problem | @DLind @voxdotcom
– Presidents need to hear bad news. Donald Trump can’t handle it.

How Clinton’s or Trump’s Nominees Could Affect the Balance of the Supreme Court? | ADAM LIPTAK and ALICIA PARLAPIANO @nytimes

The US election is dangerous for Australia | Paul Dibb @ANU_SDSC @ASPI_org

Simplifiers v. complicators | @nfergus @BostonGlobe

私見:リンク一番上の@CNNPoliticsの@David_Gergen教授の下線部分〔概要:有権者は討論の細かい内容を調べるということはほとんどせず、その替わりに討論全体のトーンや候補者の出来の雰囲気を見て判断をする。ペンス氏の発言は必ずしも事実に相違しないこともないが、彼の落ち着きやすっきりした感じは有権者にウケた。良かれ悪しかれ、この種の討論会ではこういうスタイルが重要である。〕が、本討論会の時間帯には良く当てはまると感じました。どのような場合でも記事によっては、後で尾鰭が付き過ぎて実際とかけ離れている、党派性等が非常に濃い、更には、全然理解ないまま書かれている、などが有り得ます。今年の大統領選挙は現時点ではまだどちらに転ぶか分からない、従来ほとんど影響力を持たなかった副大統領候補テレビ討論会が今後投票日までに意外な影響を及ぼす可能性もある、と感じています。

日本のガラパゴス症候群 Vol.7(The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017 - 国際競争力ランキング2016)

All the below links are in English. Excerpts, et al. are on our own. You can check out methodology as well.

The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017 (w PDF) | @wef のPDFのうち、Europe、East Asia and Pacific、North Americaに係る掲載文の抜粋等です。一番最後の私見もご覧ください。

Europe
box5-brexit
Faced with impending Brexit and geopolitical crises spilling over into the region, Europe finds itself in critical condition in many respects. Nevertheless, the region — which includes the EU28, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, the Balkans, and Turkey — still performs above the global average in terms of competitiveness (4.72 average score in Europe versus an average score of 4.11 among the rest of the world). This is driven by the performance of a group of regional champions, notably Switzerland, which leads the global rankings for the eighth consecutive year. The top 12 includes seven more European countries: the Netherlands (4th), Germany (5th), Sweden (6th), the United Kingdom (7th), Finland (10th), Norway (11th), and Denmark (12th).
uk-p1uk-p2
figure8-europe
… there is wide dispersion in regional performance on several pillars. The largest gap is in the macroeconomic environment pillar, a reflection of the fact that the region has been recovering unevenly from the global financial crisis. Europe’s median performance is weakest across the innovation indicators: Figure 8 shows that the region’s countries are clearly divided, with a significant gap between the innovation assessment for Northern and Western European countries versus Central, Eastern, and Southern European ones. Although this gap has been a persistent challenge, there are some recent encouraging signs of convergence in certain dimensions.
ireland-p1ireland-p2
Accelerating innovation efforts will be crucial to maintain current levels of prosperity, and Europe can expect high returns from focusing its resources on nurturing its talent. … On attracting and retaining international talent, although one European country (Switzerland) achieves the top global scores, the average for the region as a whole is low; this does not bode well for the creation of a vibrant European knowledge economy. The United Kingdom is currently still the most attractive EU destination for talent, yet the Brexit vote has created significant uncertainty over the conditions under which workers from EU countries will be able to participate in the UK economy in the future. Moreover, university applications from the European Union could potentially drop amid uncertainty over prospective students’ status and subsequent access to the UK job market (see Box 5 on the potential implications of Brexit; note that data presented in the Report were collected before the Brexit vote). … some of the largest score drops for France compared to last year were registered for the “attract and retain talent” indicators.
… Yet good practice examples in this area exist on the continent, with countries such as Switzerland and Denmark striking a balance between high labor market flexibility and strong social safety nets. …

East Asia and Pacific
japan-p1japan-p2
East Asia and Pacific is characterized by great diversity. The region’s 18 economies covered in the GCI 2016–2017 span a large part of the development ladder, from Cambodia to Singapore, and include three of the world’s 10 largest economies: China, Japan, and Indonesia. The region’s emerging economies, led by China, have been supporting the modest global recovery since the global financial crisis. These economies accounted for almost two-fifths of global growth last year, more than twice the combined contribution of all other emerging regions. Today, global economic prospects look less favorable as a result of China’s slowdown, anemic growth in Japan and other advanced economies, and persistently low commodity prices undermining the growth and public finances of several economies in the region — notably Indonesia and Mongolia.
nz-p1nz-p2
The GCI results reveal contrasts in the region. Its advanced economies continue to perform strongly. Led by Singapore, 2nd overall behind Switzerland for the sixth consecutive year, these economies all feature in the top 30 of the GCI rankings. Losing ground since last year, Japan ranks 8th (down two) and Hong Kong SAR ranks 9th (down two). New Zealand advances three positions to 13th, while Chinese Taipei is up one notch to 14th. Further down, Australia (22nd) and the Republic of Korea (26th) both improve their scores but their positions are unchanged.
Among emerging economies, Malaysia (25th) continues to lead the region, despite losing some ground this year following six years of improvement. China remains steady at 28th for the third year in a row.
australia-p1australia-p2
Reflected in the evolution of the GCI score since the 2007–2008 edition, the overall competitiveness trends for the region are overwhelmingly positive: 13 of the region’s 15 economies covered since 2007 achieve a higher score today, with Cambodia, China, and the Philippines posting the largest gains (see Figure 11). The only exceptions are Korea and Thailand, though for the latter the loss has been small and from a high base. …
figure11-easiapacific
The region’s advanced economies need to further develop their innovation capacity. Japan and Singapore are the only economies in the region among the world’s top 10 innovators, ranking respectively 8th and 9th in the innovation pillar. Japan, Korea (which has dropped from 8th to 20th in the pillar since 2007), and to a lesser extent Chinese Taipei (11th), have experienced a steady erosion of their innovation edge since 2007. Meanwhile New Zealand (23rd), although it has improved significantly since 2007, Australia (26th), and Hong Kong (27th) remain far behind the world’s innovation powerhouses.
Since 2007, most emerging economies have improved on the basic drivers of competitiveness (i.e., on the first four pillars of the GCI) — often markedly, though also often from a low base. With the exception of Malaysia and Thailand, these economies have made major strides in improving governance, including in tackling corruption. All of them except Thailand have also made significant progress in terms of transport infrastructure… A similar generalized upward trend is seen in health and basic education. … On the macroeconomic front, the situation has also improved almost everywhere, with inflation at a 10-year low in most economies. The fiscal situation is also relatively sound, with most economies posting deficits lower than 3 percent. The notable exception is Mongolia, where the macroeconomic situation remains worryingly volatile. …

North America
figure16-namerica
The United States ranks 3rd for the third consecutive year, while Canada ranks 15th. However, the evolution of how the two countries rank on various pillars sheds light on the forces shaping competitiveness among advanced economies at the forefront of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
canada-p1canada-p2
Both the United States and Canada outperform the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country average overall and on most pillars, although the OECD average beats the United States in areas such as macroeconomic performance and health and primary education (Figure 16). The United States lags behind Canada in the quality of institutions, macroeconomic environment, and health and primary education. Canada’s largest disparities with OECD countries are in business sophistication and innovation. The large domestic market in the United States represents a major source of competitiveness advantage over other advanced economies.
us-p1us-p2
Since 2007, the United States has been falling behind both in absolute and relative terms in infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, and goods market efficiency. It has improved, however, on health and primary education, higher education and training, and especially technological readiness, one of the most essential pillars for taking advantage of new technologies.
Canada, on the other hand, has improved marginally in all efficiency enhancers, with markets for goods, labor, capital, and human capital remaining among the best-ranked of the OECD countries. However, Canada lags behind on innovation and business sophistication, which are especially central for advanced economies.
In the United States, innovation and business sophistication have improved; in Canada, they have deteriorated and could be slowing down productivity improvements. However, the business community in the United States is increasingly concerned about basic determinants of competitiveness such as infrastructure.

私見:ランク自体に一喜一憂するのは無意味ですが、ご指摘のとおりという面もあると感じます。日本の課題は、1st pillar: Institutions(ランク16位、スコア5.4)、3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment(104位、4.1)、5th pillar: Higher education and training(23位、5.4)、6th pillar: Goods market efficiency(16位、5.2)、7th pillar: Labor market efficiency(19位、4.8)、8th pillar: Financial market development(17位、4.9)、9th pillar: Technological readiness(19位、5.8)に共通して、技術の発展、国内外の経済の連動性、資本主義・民主主義下での経済活動の積み重ねなどにより表れる時代背景に合わない、無駄な作業の多さ、効率の悪さ、機会の不平等、形式主義などを社会慣行・固定観念として引きずってしまっていることではないかと感じています。『日本のガラパゴス症候群』と若干激しいタイトルを付けたのも、この感触に基づきます。公債残高はすぐにはどうしようもないので 3rd pillar は今後も低迷し続け総合ランクにも負の影響を与え続けますが、efficiency や fundamental human rights さらには public welfare を総合考量的に尊重する方向に行けば、各pillarのスコアは上がり日本企業は強くなり日本国民の満足度は増して行くと考えます。ここ何年か同じ顔ぶれの、スイス(総合ランク1位)、シンガポール(2位)、アメリカ(3位)などが参考になるはずです。

U.S.A. アメリカ Vol.3(1st US Presidential Debate 9/26/2016 ー 米国大統領選挙テレビ討論会)

All the below links are in English. Excerpts are on our own.

1960年(参考:1st Kennedy-Nixon debate (YouTube))や1980年には選挙の帰趨を決したとも言われるのが、 Presidential Debate です。標記第1回(於:@HofstraU)の内容に関する記事の抜粋等を取り急ぎ以下貼っておきます。

Trump And Clinton Sounded As If They Were Talking About Two Different Countries | @bencasselman @fivethirtyeight
Trade
… U.S. manufacturing employment has been hit by automation as much as by globalization, and most economists think trade with China has had a much bigger impact on the economy than NAFTA. …
… But in recent years, research has found that the negative effects of trade — lost jobs, lower wages — last longer than previously believed. Economists once thought that Rust Belt communities, or at least their residents, would rebound quickly from the loss of factory jobs; that hasn’t happened. …
Taxes
… On Monday, however, Trump largely abandoned his populist rhetoric on taxes and instead embraced more traditional Republican talking points: Cutting taxes, including on the rich, he argued, will lead them to invest more in companies and create jobs, while lowering and restructuring corporate taxes will encourage businesses to bring back money stashed overseas. Many economists agree that, all else equal, lowering taxes will tend to boost economic growth. But few believe Trump’s plan would deliver as much of an economic boost as he claims. … 
Crime and policing
… The candidates offered different policy approaches: Trump called for more aggressive policing, singling out New York’s abandoning of its “stop-and-frisk” policy under Mayor Bill de Blasio. Trump said the controversial policy worked; Clinton said it discriminated against minority residents. (Holt pointed out that the policy had been ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge; Trump said the ruling would have been reversed if it had been appealed.) Clinton instead called for gun restrictions, including universal background checks (which research has suggested could help reduce gun killings) and broader criminal justice reform, including abandoning mandatory-minimum sentences, which she said “have put too many people away for too long, for doing too little.” …

Presidential fireworks: The verdict | David Ribar @MelbInstUOM, @LaurenRosewarne @unimelb, James Cahill @Government_UoM; @electionwatch_, Election Watch USA
POLICY
… It was also a surprisingly effective policy battle – though fought using completely different tactics by the two candidates.
Viewers who wanted policy details got heaps of information from Clinton, who offered a comprehensive list of initiatives to grow the American economy, improve outcomes for the country’s middle class, strengthen policing, heal race relations, address the problems of America’s inner cities, counter cyber vulnerabilities, and fight ISIS.

… Trump’s strategy, however, wasn’t to offer policy specifics but rather to discredit Clinton’s and thereby discredit her. In this regard, Trump’s responses were nothing to sniff about – though sniff and sniffle he did. In every segment of the debate Trump emphasised the country’s problems – job losses, rising murder rates, and increasing threats at home and abroad.
Trump followed this litany of woe with effective criticisms of the failure of politicians generally, and of President Barack Obama and Clinton specifically, to address these problems. He repeatedly asked Clinton why she didn’t fix these problems during her long years of service. Trump clearly played to his strengths as an outsider. …
PERCEPTION
For the first couple of moments, Trump’s tone was under control. Clinton’s was shaky, her sentences over-rehearsed. Initially he accomplished a natural, off-the-cuff persona. She was stiff and awkward. …
… He went so far as to pat himself on the back for not saying “something extremely rough to Hillary”, all the while being unable to resist the siren’s call of fat-shaming ­– apparently the cyber attack on the Democratic National Committee could have been “someone sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds,” and, hilariously, the tried and true ‘you-love-it-so-much-why-don’t-you-marry-it’ schoolyard zinger of “the Iran deal that you’re so in love with”. …
POLITICS
… Forced to answer, I’d say Clinton, but this was no knockout. Her performance will likely help her make some progress with her intended audiences – moderate Republicans uncomfortable with Trump and wavering young Democrats. Trump largely stuck to his standard message and it would be unlikely if he won over many voters not already in his camp. …
… Strategically, I don’t think this debate will help Trump move beyond his apparent polling ceiling of roughly 43-44%. The part of the Republican voting coalition that is most resistant to Trump’s candidacy are college-educated, white, married women. Over-reliance on his well-known material and repeatedly interrupting Clinton are not likely to change the minds of many of these voters. …

Damned by Faint Trump | @KoriSchake @ForeignPolicy
– Last night’s debate was nothing to crow about on either side, but Hillary Clinton definitely got the better of her rival.
… But it wasn’t horrible — it had substantive moments — and that’s noteworthy this election cycle. Hillary Clinton lived up to her Saturday Night Live impersonation of shrewdness, came locked and loaded with oppo research on Donald Trump’s taxes, business practices, the name of a woman he demeaned, policy citations … and gave Trump all the rope he demanded to explain himself at length. She did some A+ trolling, chipping his vanity and counting on his inability to restrain himself. It was a successful strategy. Trump landed several solid blows but simply lacked the discipline to drive home the points (for example, on her emails). His insistence on his “temperament” as his best quality was refuted by his performance. …
… I thought she missed the chance to bash Trump about his Russian connections. Her policy recommendations are also pretty weak: declaring we won’t permit states to target our private or government information, and that we have tools we could use and will defend our citizens. She seems innocent of the hostility most tech firms have toward Washington, breezily counting on working with them. …
Trump repeated much nonsense… claiming Iran was “ready to fall” before the nuclear agreement propped the government up, falsely claimed he convinced NATO to start looking at terrorism, weirdly claimed that “all of the things she is talking about could have been taken care of in the past 10 years when she had immense power.”
He revisited his standard complaints about America’s unaffordable alliance relationships, giving Clinton her best moment of the night as she spoke to reassure America’s allies that our country will honor our mutual defense treaties and can be trusted to keep its word. It pretty well defanged his claim that “she’s got experience, but it’s bad experience. And this country can’t afford to have another four years of that kind of experience.” …

Trump, Clinton debate fact-checks (a running collection) | @YLindaQiu @PolitiFact
Here are 33 claims from Clinton and Trump, fact-checked. …(17 claims as below)
Clinton: Trump’s tax plan would deliver “the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country.”
Clinton: “He started his business with $14 million, borrowed from his father.”
Trump: “My father gave me a very small loan in 1975, and I built it into a company that’s worth many, many billions of dollars, with some of the greatest assets in the world.”
Clinton: “In fact, Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. He said, back in 2006, ‘Gee, I hope it does collapse, because then I can go in and buy some and make some money.’ Well, it did collapse.”
Clinton: “Independent experts have looked at what I’ve proposed and looked at what Donald’s proposed, and basically they’ve said this, that if his tax plan, which would blow up the debt by over $5 trillion.”
Trump: The Obama administration “has doubled” the national debt in eight years.
Trump: “You go to New England, you go to Ohio, Pennsylvania, you go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton, and you will see devastation where manufacturing is down 30, 40, sometimes 50 percent.”
Trump: “Now, look, we have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression.”
Trump: “You will learn more about Donald Trump by going down to the Federal Election Commission” to see the financial disclosure form than by looking at tax returns.
Clinton: “You’ve taken business bankruptcy six times.”
Clinton: “You even at one time suggested that you would try to negotiate down the national debt of the United States.”
Trump: “In Chicago, they’ve had thousands of shootings, thousands since January 1st. Thousands of shootings.”
Clinton: “Donald started his career back in 1973 being sued by the Justice Department for racial discrimination because he would not rent apartments in one of his developments to African-Americans.”
Trump: “I settled that lawsuit with no admission of guilt.”
Clinton: “I was so shocked when Donald publicly invited Putin to hack into Americans. That is just unacceptable.”
Clinton: “He actually advocated for the actions we took in Libya and urged that Gadhafi be taken out, after actually doing some business with him one time.”
Clinton: “John Kerry and President Obama got a deal that put a lid on Iran’s nuclear program without firing a single shot.”

Clinton Prevails in Downer of a Debate | @amyewalter @CookPolitical

Producing “The Choice” – Frontline’s Documentary on the 2016 Presidential Candidates (Soundcloud) | @DukeSanford

Many Young Voters Remain On The Fence After First Debate (w radio) | @asmamk @NPR

Poll: Clinton Leads Trump Ahead of First Debate | @mmurraypolitics(9/21)

Debating the debates | @cpazzanese @Harvard Gazette(9/22)
– Harvard analysts ponder the upcoming presidential clashes, how viewers may react, and how the candidates might snare their votes

Polls: Clinton Running the Table in Key Battlegrounds | @mmurraypolitics(8/12)

New September Electoral College Ratings | @amyewalter @CookPolitical(9/23)

The Race Tightens But the Math Heavily Favors Clinton | @CharlieCookDC @CookPolitical(9/20)

ツイッター paper.li Vol.8

All the below links are in English.

弊社ツイッターアカウントの一つ @WSjp_insight のRTによる paper.li 掲載記事4件を貼っておきます。

National raw materials agreement to foster circular economy by 2050 | @MinInfraEnvirNL

Rising Irish property prices threaten stability, @OECD warns | @IrishTimes @BRegsBlog

3 Unexpected Fish Species Found in the Inland Bays | @DEInlandBays

Sen. President Sweeney calls Christie’s tax deal nix with Pa. ‘horrible’ | @Trentonian

U.K. イギリス Vol.9(Brexit Vol.8: Japan’s Message to UK & EU 日本要望書)

(The below two links are in English, and the last one in Japanese.)

さて、当サイトでも今後、随時、Brexit につき情報をアップして参ります。
本日は、@ChathamHouse 関係の記事 Japan Lays Out a Guide to Brexit (6 September 2016) | Sir David Warren @CHAsiaProg(’日本がイギリスEU離脱の手引きを示す’)本文と抄訳をご紹介します。

– Britain would do well to embrace Tokyo’s constructive criticism as it prepares for life outside the EU.(EU域外での生き方を準備している日本の建設的な批判を、イギリスは包み込んで受け容れてうまくやっていける)

The Japanese government paper on the implications of Brexit released on 2 September has been described in the UK media as an ‘unprecedented’ and ‘dire’ warning, a ‘stark’ threat, and dismissed as ‘doom-mongering’. In reality, it is a carefully-argued and very detailed analysis of the areas of Brexit-related concern to the thousands of Japanese companies in the UK, and those aspects of the current business environment that they want to preserve in the forthcoming negotiations. Setting out the Japanese stall in this way risks annoying British negotiators with the responsibility of finding their way through the minefield of agreeing the terms of Britain’s divorce from Europe. But the Japanese analysis, used constructively, is an important guide to what really matters in ensuring that a post-Brexit UK is not only ‘open for business’, but a country that the world’s major investors want to do business with.
(9月2日に公表されたイギリスEU離脱に係る日本政府の要望書(下記参考英文)は、’前代未聞’で’切迫した’警告であり’正真正銘’の脅しであるとイギリスのメディアでは伝えられており、’恐怖を利用した’と切り捨てられている。しかし、日本の要望書は、イギリスEU離脱に係るイギリス国内の千単位の日本企業にとっての懸念について、また、今後の離脱交渉において日本企業にとって維持されたい現在の企業活動環境について、注意深く議論されまた非常に詳細に分析したものである。… 建設的に使えば、離脱後のイギリスが’企業活動にとって動き易い’のみならず世界の主な投資者が企業活動をしたい国であることを確保するのに真に問題となる事柄についての重要な手引きである。)

The paper is couched in terms of cooperation and partnership. Japanese inward investment into the UK has been one of the major industrial success stories of the last 40 years, with the 1984 decision of Nissan to build its car plant at Sunderland the turning point. The Japanese government and Japanese companies want to preserve this post-Brexit. But that means keeping radical changes to the current environment that might emerge from the Brexit talks to a minimum. Specifically, the Japanese want, among other things, to maintain current tariff rates and customs procedures, access to skills (including from within the EU), the current provision of financial services (50 per cent of the value of British manufactured goods is accounted for by services), the current arrangements for information protection and data exchange, unified intellectual property protection, harmonized standards and regulations, and access to the EU R&D budget and joint programmes. These requests are aimed at EU negotiators as well as at the UK. A 10-page annex goes into even more detail, sector by sector.
(… とりわけ日本が望むのは、関税率、税関手続き、EU域内も含めた人材へのアクセス、金融サービス条項、情報保護及び… →下記参考(日本語PDF3頁等)をご覧ください

The context of these requests is not just concern about Brexit. The paper makes clear that leading the free-trade system remains a responsibility shared by Japan, the UK and the EU. The Japanese government are nervously watching the US presidential election, with Donald Trump openly adopting a protectionist line and Hillary Clinton now opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal; they will also have been concerned at suggestions from European politicians that the US−EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may fail. Hence their statement – echoed by President Obama at the G20 in Hangzhou in his remarks on TTIP – that the priority must be to finalize the EU−Japan Economic Partnership Agreement this year. A post-Brexit UK−EU relationship that erects protectionist walls would, in Japan’s view, be a disaster for everyone.  The arguments in the paper are about preserving the health of the global economy.
(要望書はイギリスEU離脱への懸念を示しているだけではない。引き続き自由貿易をリードしていくことが日英欧において共有される責任であることが明確にされている。日本政府はアメリカ大統領選挙を神経質に見守っている。…)

And Japan calls for early clarity and transparency on the difficult issues.  The paper argues that uncertainty causes volatility, and warns against the negotiating process producing ‘unpleasant surprises’. This advice may be unwelcome to UK politicians and negotiators who have to work out how to trade off being part of the single market with the need to restrict freedom of movement.   This is a political dilemma that needs to be unravelled slowly; Britain’s economic partners’ need for early clarity runs directly counter to the politics which Prime Minister Theresa May and her cabinet have to manage over the coming months.
(そして日本は、難しい案件につき早期の明確化及び透明性を求めている。不確実性が市場の急激な変動を引き起こすと述べ、また、交渉過程が’嬉しくないサプライズ’をもたらすことを警告している。このアドバイスは、単一市場の一部であることと移動の自由を制限することの折り合いをいかに付けるかに尽力せねばならない政治家や交渉者からは、歓迎されないものかもしれない。これは、ゆっくりほどけて行かざるを得ない政治的ジレンマなのであるから。…)

The paper observes that ‘Japan respects the will of the British people as demonstrated in the referendum’ and express confidence that ‘the UK and the EU will overcome . . . difficulties and lay the foundations for the creation of a new Europe’. Nonetheless, the menu of requests is challenging and almost certainly impossible to fulfil in its entirety, if, as the prime minister has said, ‘Brexit means Brexit’. But it is a guide to what foreign businesses, attracted to the UK by successive governments with the promise of being inside the single market in an EU member state committed to further trade liberalization, want from the new arrangements. 
(要望書では、’日本はイギリス国民の投票の意思を尊重する’と述べられ、また … にもかかわらず … しかし、これは、外国企業がイギリスの今後の交渉過程において整えてもらいたいことに係る手引きなのである。…)

In that sense, it should also lift the level of current discussion on trade and investment relations away from the zero-sum political arguments during the referendum campaign – ‘being part of Europe’ versus ‘free trade agreements with the rest of the world’.  Japan is saying, very clearly, that it is not an either/or choice. If the UK is to remain one of the world’s largest and most powerful economies – which, however much it is talked down in Britain, it still is – it is going to have to have a relationship with the EU that attracts foreign investors. After all, as the paper also makes clear, they have a choice where to invest. It does not have to be the UK.
(この意味では、この要望書は、国民投票キャンペーンで展開されたゼロサムの政治的議論ー’欧州の一部’か’欧州以外の世界各国との自由貿易’かーから、貿易や投資の関係に係る議論のレベルを高めるものである。日本は、非常にはっきりと、どちらかを選ぶ選択ではない、と言っている。もしイギリスが世界で最大最強の経済の一つであり続けるならば、外国投資家を惹き付けるイギリスとEUとの関係を持っているであろう。結局、要望書がこれまた明確にしているように、どこに投資するかの選択の自由があるということである。イギリスへ投資しなければならない、ということではない。)

参考
Japan’s Message to the United Kingdom and the European Union (PDF)
英国及びEUへの日本からのメッセージ(PDF、日本語)

Crisis Management 危機管理 Vol.2

(The below link is in English.)

危機管理は、国家的緊急事態については平時の防災と事態発生後72時間以降の復旧対応の間の事態発生後72時間以内の対処であり、また、国家的緊急事態以外でも事態発生後早い段階での対処を意味します。したがって防災は標題の危機管理には直接は当たりませんが、防災・復旧は危機管理と一体的に平時より十分に準備しておく必要があることから、随時ここで触れていくこととなります。

今日は、ニュージーランドのクライストチャーチ市経済インフラ状況レポートの最新版 Latest Christchurch Economic Infrastructure Situation Report online (see PDF) | @CDCChristchurch @ChristchurchCC @SCIRT_info (#Chch #CDEM #lgnz #ECan #CHC_Airport #ChorusNZ #ufbnz #OrionNZ…) をごく簡単にご紹介します。2011年カンタベリー地震等による被害からの復旧等が記載されており、PDFの総論 General context(p9-21)、水 Water(p23,30,32,34-39)、交通 Transport(p48-50,52-66)、通信 Communications(p72-76,78-79)、エネルギー Energy(p84,87-89,91-94)に本Christchurch市の、その他のページに広域周辺地域及び国の、現状や政策等が記されています。以下、PDF内の図表をいくつか貼っておきます。

CDEM
Game Changers

Water Supply Damage
Wastewater Damage

NZ Transport Networks
Road Damage
Roads Significance
Expenditure
Rail Traffic
Lyttleton Port

Enable Networks
Tasman Global

Energy
Pet Storage

Authorities
Rebuild
Zones
Implementing
Distribution

ツイッター paper.li Vol.2

All the below links are in English.

弊社ツイッターアカウントの一つ @WSjp_insight のRTによるpaper.li掲載記事5件を貼っておきます。

Canada can transition to renewable energy in just a few decades, says Stanford University professor @mzjacobson | @monique_muise

Irish ANZACS database at @UNSW | @IrelandSydney

@CharlieFlanagan addressed the diplomatic corps on Brexit and the Day of Commemoration | @IrelandEmbUSA

Kenny in hot water for backing Scotland – Scottish Tories angry at Irish intervention | @1johnmacdonald; @CormacMcQuinn @KevDoyle_Indo

Vancouver company @SewageSHARC turns sewage into heat | @CanCGChicago; @jackiewattles

Australia オーストラリア Vol.2

4件ご紹介します。

1. More Jobs and Growth through Increased Trade and Investment (w PDF) | @LiberalAus は、今月の選挙より前の(イギリスEU離脱投票前でもある)今年5月の、オーストラリアの政権与党たる自由党の、「貿易・投資により雇用・経済成長を」、という政策発表(PDFは本頁と同一内容)です。選挙で勝利し連立政権が続いた場合の今後の政策方針であり、このとおり進めて行かれると考えられます。特筆すべきは、以下のとおり。
・ 今月1日より、年間総売上高1000万ドル未満の中小企業に対して、法人税率を27.5%に引き下げ、順次更に下げていく(PLAN 1:… From 1 July 2016, small businesses will have their corporate tax rate progressively reduced. On 1 July 2016, the tax rate will fall to 27.5 per cent for companies with annual turnover less than $10 million. This 27.5 per cent rate will be gradually extended to all companies, before falling to 27 per cent on 1 July 2024, 26 percent on 1 July 2025, and 25 per cent on 1 July 2026. …)。
・ 輸出手続窓口一本化(PLAN 2:… some businesses require permits or approvals from multiple government departments or agencies before they are able to export. The ‘Single Window’ will substantially reduce red tape and, in doing so, reduce the time and cost associated with Australian exporters doing business. …)。
・ サービス業は、オーストラリアの就業者の80%を占め、GDPの70%を占めるのに、輸出額のうちたった21%である(PLAN 5:… Services businesses employ 80 per cent of the Australian workforce and make up 70 per cent of our GDP, yet only 21 per cent of Australia’s exports are services. …)。
・ この政策に、1,600億ドルの予算を充当する。

2. Foreign Investment in Australia remains strong (w PDF) | Foreign Investment Review Board @Treasury_AU は、今年4月にFIRBから発表された、2014-15年における外国からのオーストラリアへの投資に係る年次レポート(PDF)です。要点(p.xii)は、以下のとおり。以下の表は、Chart 2.1 から Table 2.12 まで(2-1~15)。
・ 投資申込件数が、13-14年は24,102件であったのに対し、14-15年は37,953件と激増した。
・ 総額1,946億ドルの投資申込が14-15年に承認され、13-14年比16.3%増となった。
・ 居住用不動産への投資申込総額が、13-14年には347億ドルであったが、14-15年には608億ドルとなった。また、商業用不動産への投資申込額は362億ドルであった。
・ その他、サービス業では388億ドル、鉱業では267億ドル、製造業では195億ドル、の投資申込があった。
・ アメリカはオーストラリアにとって最大の投資元であり、2014年末において累積総額の23.7%を占めた。中国はオーストラリアにとって2014-15年は最大の投資申込許可国であって466億ドルを計上しているが、累積総額では4.4%で5位である。
2-12-22-32-42-52-62-72-82-92-102-112-122-132-142-15

3. Trade in services Australia (w PDF) | @dfat @AusUnlimited @ABSStats は、今年2月に外交貿易省から発表された、2014-15年におけるオーストラリアのサービス貿易に係る年次レポート(PDF)です。要点(p.2-3)は、以下のとおり。以下の表は、Table 7 から Table 70 まで(3-1~22)。
・ 2014-15年におけるオーストラリアのサービス貿易総額は、前年比3.8%増の1,339億ドル。2009-10年以来、年平均5.3%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス貿易総額は、全貿易中、2013-14年は19.2%を占めていたが、2014-15年は20.3%と増加した。
・ サービス貿易収支赤字は、2014-15年には、2013-14年の143億ドルから59億ドル減って、84億ドルとなった。
・ サービス輸出額は、前年比9.4%増の628億ドル。2009-10年以来、年平均4.3%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス輸出量は前年比7.6%増、価格は前年比1.7%増。量は、2009-10年以来、年平均2.1%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス輸出額は、全輸出中、2013-14年は17.3%を占めていたが、2014-15年は19.7%と増加した。
・ 付加価値ベースのサービス輸出額は、全サービス輸出中、約40%を占める。
・ サービス輸入額は、前年比0.6%減の712億ドル。尤も、2009-10年以来、年平均増加率は6.1%である。
・ サービス輸入量は前年比5.3%減、価格は前年比4.9%増。 尤も、 量は、2009-10年以来、年平均増加率は3.9%である。
・ サービス輸入額は、全輸出中、2013-14年は21.1%を占めていたが、2014-15年は20.9%と減少した。
3-13-23-33-43-53-63-73-83-93-103-113-123-133-143-153-163-173-183-193-203-213-22

4. Australian Election: Malcolm Turnbull Declares Victory for Conservatives – New government faces multiple challenges, including a fractious Senate and slowing economy | @WSJRobTaylor は、今月2日投票の選挙の結果、ようやくなされた現連立政権の勝利宣言などを伝える記事(10日)です。
 日欧の財政赤字より遥かにマシである、(… Collapsing prices for the country’s commodity exports have contributed to a deficit totaling A$85 billion over the next four years. Australia’s debt to gross domestic product ratio—at 37% as of 2015—is far less than that of Europe and Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund, but debt is growing at a pace among the world’s fastest. …)、鉱業ブームの間の豪ドル高により空洞化した工業地域から、給与上昇が遅く世界で最も高い住宅費と闘っている大都市まで、ターンブル首相は有権者の懸念を払拭すべくもがいた(… From industrial towns hollowed out by a strong currency during the mining boom to big cities like Sydney, where people are grappling with slowing wages and some of the world’s costliest housing, he struggled to address voter concerns. …)、などとも触れられています。
 @jillesheppard 氏からは、首相は、24年間続いた経済成長の後の現下の景気悪化に対応するため、経済自身のイデオロギーに沿わない経済政策等の妥協を強いられるであろう等の旨コメントされています(… Mr. Turnbull will be forced to compromise on economic overhauls at the worst possible time, said Jill Sheppard, a political scientist at the Australian National University, with global economic headwinds and a fragile budget environment at home. “My gut feeling is they will have to break packages down into things they think they can achieve, while there is also going to be a lot of horse trading,” Ms. Sheppard said. “Given the vast ideological differences on these crossbenches, Mr. Turnbull is not going to have the luxury of putting together cohesive packages, economic or otherwise.”)
 「Risks to Australia’s Economic Miracle」にインフォグラフ有り。
あくまで参考: 選挙結果(Live Australian election results: track the votes | @guardian

paperliAuspaperliAus'

Canada カナダ Vol.2

記事4件をご紹介します。

1. Trudeau, Mexican president stand up for free trade, take shots at Trump-style protectionism | @leeberthiaume @nationalpost では、加墨首脳間でのビザ及び牛肉に係る相互合意につき書かれています。国家の経済成長と国民自身の成功を妨げる内向きの保護主義が忍び寄る昨今それに打ち勝つべく、カナダ側からは今年12月1日までにメキシコ国民のカナダ入国につきビザを不要とする旨、メキシコ側からは今年10月までにカナダ産牛肉に係る全ての制限を撤廃する旨発表しています。(…the Canada-Mexico relationship is “a compelling example that we want to showcase at a time where unfortunately people are prone to turning inwards, which will unfortunately be at the cost of their economic growth and their own success.” To cement the Canada-Mexico relationship, Trudeau announced the Liberal government will lift visa requirements on Mexican travellers by Dec. 1. At the same time, Pena Nieto said Mexico will remove all restrictions on Canadian beef by October. The Harper government introduced the visa requirement in 2009, after thousands of Mexicans flooded Canada’s refugee system…)

2. More than a Pretty Face: Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Vision for Canada | Anna Murphy @BrownBPR では、カナダを政治的・経済的・社会的にプログレッシブ(進歩的)にするというトルドー首相の政策について書かれています(…Trudeau’s success in the federal election showed that his promise to make Canada a more politically, economically, and socially progressive nation was well received…)。
 スタイルのみならず内容があるのか、成果も出せるのかが問われ始めている(…As the Prime Minister now aims to carry out his campaign promises, the people in turn are beginning to ask if…there is substance behind his style… Will popularity translate into product?)。
 予算を見ればビジョンが分かり、その問いへの答えも見える。自由党の当初の計画の変更及びハーパー保守党政権の緊縮財政からの脱却が見て取れる。短期的な予算削減よりも政府による投資の方が経済を強化し長期的に財政を自然均衡させる、という考え方である。(The budget, which offers better insight into Trudeau’s vision for the coming years than the fanfare that has captured the attention of media around the world, begins to answer this question. It reveals a distinctly Liberal plan for Canada and a massive departure from the austerity measures of the Conservative Harper government. It also aims for a drastic increase in spending with only a potential minor tax raise for the middle class. …Trudeau and finance minister Bill Morneau’s departure from their original plan underlines their economic ideology: The idea is that government investment will be better at strengthening the economy and balancing the budget in the long run than short term measures to cut the deficit. …also lead to long-term investments that will balance the budget naturally.)
 また、予算には政治的・社会的な思想も組み込まれている。クリーンテクノロジーへの10億ドル、公共交通や水処理施設のようなインフラへの119億ドルは、経済強化と環境保全に資することが期待される。(Besides deficit spending, Trudeau’s budget combines his economic policies with some of the political and social talking points of his campaign… In general, Trudeau’s budget aims to balance economic strength and environmental protection… The $1 billion investment in clean technology as well as the $11.9 billion investment in infrastructure systems, such as public transit and water treatment plants…)
 更に、5年総額84億ドルを先住民族の教育と福祉に充てている(…Trudeau is hoping to address the failures of the Harper government in advancing the education and welfare of aboriginals by allocating a whopping $8.4 billion over five years for Canada’s indigenous groups.)。
 メディアはトルドー首相の外見や愛嬌に着目し続けるが、それだけでは、アルバータ州・オンタリオ州都市周辺部・ケベック州農村部・トロント市部の保守派やアメリカなど外国のトレンドがトルドー政権のリベラルな思想とは異なり得ることを忘れる危険がある。(…Conservatives in Alberta, the suburbs of Ontario, rural Quebec, and even urban Toronto paint a very different picture of Canada than the Trudeau-inspired portraits of liberal harmony… As the media continues to marvel at Trudeau’s looks and charm, national and international political rhetoric surrounding Canada runs the risk of forgetting both the substantial policy initiatives of the current government as well as the political discord present within the nation that continues to reflect the beliefs of a significant amount of the population… While dissent is not necessarily negative — Canadian discord has not yet translated into deadlock — the political climate in Canada needs to be looked at more soberly. Trudeau’s popularity is enduring, but it should not be considered synonymous with practically unanimous political support.)

3. Justin Trudeau targets billionaires, tech moguls at secretive Sun Valley conference: Annual gathering in Idaho attracts some of the world’s richest business leaders | @CBCNews では、アメリカの投資会社アレン&カンパニーによりアイダホ州サンバレーで7月6日にメディア非公開で開催される(た)、テクノロジーやメディアの大御所が年一回集う会議に、トルドー首相が出席する(した)旨書かれています。
 ダボス会議等への出席と同様にカナダへの投資を億万長者等から募るための出席であり、出席者(非公開)にはビル・ゲイツ、ウォーレン・バフェット、マーク・ザッカーバーグ、ジェフ・ベゾスなどもいるようです。

4. Justin Trudeau makes investment pitch to Japan’s automakers: PM in ‘relationship-building mode’ with heads of Honda, Toyota and Subaru | @AndyBlatchford @CBCNews では、トルドー首相が5月24日に東京のカナダ大使公邸でホンダ、トヨタ、スバルの社長や自動車部品製造事業者を招待して、カナダへの更なる投資を呼び掛けた旨書かれています。
 トヨタやホンダと異なりカナダでのオペレーション(製造)をまだしていないスバルに関しては、スバルを製造する会社である富士重工の吉永泰之社長曰く、短期的には計画は無いが長期的にはするかもしれない、とのことです。
 また、カナダがブリティッシュコロンビア州からのLNG輸出の環境保全規制上の許可を出すことを日本が望んでいる旨も書かれています(Abe is also expected to urge Trudeau to move quickly to open up Canadian liquefied natural gas exports to Japan. Japan, the world’s biggest importer of LNG, is hoping Canada will issue necessary environmental permits to allow companies to export it from British Columbia. Monji said LNG is still very important energy source for his country, which makes Canada one of the most promising potential exporters to Japan. He noted that Japanese companies are involved in several LNG projects in Canada.)。