Obama’s visit to Japan(#Hiroshima関連:オバマ前米大統領訪日)



Donald Trump and North Korea tipped to be on agenda as Barack Obama renews friendship with Shinzo Abe (25/03/2018) | Danielle Demetriou @guardian
Abe to lunch with ex-President Obama in Tokyo (03/25/2018) | @NHKWorldNews_EN
安倍首相、オバマ前米大統領と銀座ですしランチ (日本語;写真有;2018年3月25日) | @AFP
「北朝鮮は本当の脅威」 来日中のオバマ元米大統領が北朝鮮情勢について発言 (日本語;2018年3月25日) | 産経新聞
…「第4回世界オピニオン・リーダーズ・サミット オバマ前大統領との対話」(NPO法人世界開発協力機構主催)にゲストとして出席。ブレンダン・スキャネル元駐日アイルランド大使との対談で、北朝鮮情勢や自身の広島訪問などについて語った。…
( Sake Royalty – What PM Shinzo Abe Poured Obama in Tokyo – And Why (May 2014) | @TrueSake )
Obama, in Japan, says NKorea’s isolation means less leverage (03/25/2018) | Yuri Kageyama @AP (@washingtonpost 等多数)
Obama envisions creating ‘a million young Barack Obamas’ during speech in Japan (03/25/2018) | Daniel Chaitin @dcexaminer

Post-presidency Obama meets PM Lee in S’pore: He wants to tell the world about the Obama Foundation and what it can do. (03/20/2018) | Belmont Lay @MothershipSG
Former US President Barack Obama catches up with PM Lee during his brief visit to Singapore (03/20/2018) | @CoconutsSG
Some very lucky young people got to meet Obama in Singapore – here’s what he’s been up to so far (03/20/2018) | Jessica Lin @BusInsiderSG
Listening to former US president Obama in person was 10 times better than seeing a pop star: Generation Grit millennial (03/19/2018) | Theresa Tan @STcom
Ganesh meets Obama in Singapore (03/21/2018) | LUQMAN ARIF ABDUL KARIM @NewStraitsTimes
Barack Obama shows he hasn’t lost his touch in Sydney visit (03/24/2018) | SAM BUCKINGHAM-JONES @australian
President Obama’s delivers invite-only address in Sydney: FACT and logic are being tested around the world, former President Obama has told an exclusive invite-only crowd in Sydney. (03/24/2018) | @newscomauHQ
Former US President Barack Obama’s third and final day in New Zealand (23/03/2018) | @nzherald
Obama in New Zealand for meetings, golf, but no public talks (03/25/2018) | Nick Perry @AP @washingtonpost
Former US president Barack Obama jets in to Auckland tonight (20/03/2018) | Claire Trevett @NewstalkZB

cf. https://twitter.com/WSjp_insight/status/978168699562508288

Australia オーストラリア Vol.5(Japan-Australia Summit Meeting 日豪首脳会談など)

(All the below links are in English.)


2017 Lowy Institute Global Diplomacy Index:日本は総合5位


U.S.-Japan Summit Meetings 日米首脳会談 Vol.14(関連6: Australia, European Union, Russia, China, North Korea など)


U.S.-Japan Summit Meetings 日米首脳会談 Vol.12(関連4: TPP, North Korea, China, Australia, ASEANなど)




U.S.-Japan Summit Meetings 日米首脳会談 Vol.11(関連3: Australiaメディアの報道 — TPP, APEC, China, North Koreaなど)


Australia-New Zealand Summit Meeting 豪NZ首脳会談

All the below links are in English.


English, Turnbull singing from the same page (w Video; 2/18/2017) | @tracy_watkins @NZStuff
The pair are still forging a personal relationship, but could be forced together when working out how to deal with the US president.

It was a show of trans-Tasman mateship – and its indirect target was US President Donald Trump. …
Turnbull’s passionate rejection of a retreat into protectionism and “putting up walls” was another indirect dig at the Trump administration turning its back on trade liberalisation. …
The chemistry between Turnbull and English’s predecessor John Key had been a strength in the relationship, and helped push a better deal for Kiwi expats in Oz across the line last year.
Turnbull and Key were similar in their outlook and backgrounds, while Turnbull and English are chalk and cheese – Turnbull the more urbane money man, while English still wears his southern farming roots on his sleeve. …
Speaking with one voice on the TPP is not hard for either country, however; the bigger test of the Anzac spirit will come if the US calls on its traditional allies to commit troops to its fights, like Iraq or Syria. …

Turnbull works on English bromance (2/17/2017) | @SBS
… Given the public “bromance” between Mr English’s predecessor, John Key, and Mr Turnbull the fleeting trip is about reaffirming the strong connection between their two sporting rival countries. …
Both expressed a desire to work together in their push for free trade on the back of the US’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
There were no further announcements on pathways to citizenship for Kiwis in Australia but Mr English appreciated the agreement struck last year.
It’s estimated up to 70,000 New Zealanders who arrived between February 2001 and 2016 will be eligible from July 1. …
Mr English also revealed a New Zealand offer to take 150 asylum seekers from Australia still stands despite Mr Turnbull’s deal with the Obama administration.
Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos and Economic Development Minister Simon Bridges used the trip to sign a science and innovation treaty aimed at collaborating on research to tackle among other challenges, chronic disease. …

Turnbull, English’s plan to tackle ‘The Donald’ (w Video; 2/17/2017) | @PatrickGower @NewshubNZ
… “The only approach is to be frank and forthright, I’m too old to be any different. I suspect Bill’s too old to change too “, Mr Turnbull says. …
The Trump administration is believed to have made a big ask of Australia behind the scenes – more troops for Iraq, meaning New Zealand will likely be hit up too for ‘Troops for Trump’.
“We’ll assess all requests on their merits as we always do,” Mr Turnbull said; Mr English echoing: “I simply couldn’t pre-judge that”.
And the Christchurch fire invoked the Anzac spirit, with Mr Turnbull offering support to help against the Port Hills blaze.
He also paid tribute to Steve Askin, the former SAS member who died when his helicopter crashed fighting the Port Hills fires. …
“The trans-Tasman trade and economic relationship provides an excellent model for deeper economic integration and we continue to build on that foundation as we engage with other partners.”

Turnbull and English meet amid global turmoil (2/17/2017) | @chrisbramwell @radionz
… Labour Party trade spokesperson David Clark said Australia and New Zealand had worked well together traditionally on trade and the two countries should look to leverage that on the world stage.
“Whether that is through the TPP minus USA, which in my view is a face-saving exercise by those who have staked their credibility on getting the TPP through last year, or whether it’s through some alternative trade agreement, we should be looking for opportunities for New Zealand to benefit, so long as those benefits are shared fairly across the population.”
New Zealand International Business Forum executive director Stephen Jacobi said the TPP minus the US was far from dead. …
Green Party co-leader James Shaw, said there were two clear messages Bill English should be giving Malcolm Turnbull.
“First of all, is that New Zealand does not accept the way that Australia has been treating these refugees over the course of the last few years – we agree with the United Nations assessment that they are in inhumane conditions.
“And the second message is that if Australia’s arrangement with the United States falls through, that New Zealand would be willing to take those refugees.” …
cf. NZ’ers in Australia could get easier citizenship path (2/19/2016) | @demelzaleslie @radionz

Trade dominates English, Turnbull talks (2/17/2017) | @NewstalkZB
… Mr English reiterated that New Zealand’s four-year-old offer to take 150 refugees from Australian detention centre on Nauru and Manus Island still stands.
He also praised the Australian government for its significant shift in policy to allow a pathway for up as many as 60,000 New Zealanders living in Australia to become citizens. …
Mr English thanked Australia for its assistance battling the Port Hills fire and in the aftermath of the Kaikoura earthquake…
While Mrs Turnbull asked Defence Force members how the Port Hills fire battle was progressing, Mr Turnbull paid tribute to Steven Askin, the helicopter pilot killed fighting the blaze. …
Mr Turnbull also acknowledged the loss many small communities like Arrowtown had suffered during World War I and the importance of the Australia-New Zealand relationship. …

Malcolm Turnbull’s Aussie-Kiwi bromance with New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English (2/17/2017) | @matt_killoran @newscomauHQ

World Vol.2(Troubled waters – the South China Sea)

Julian Lorkin’s interview with Shanghai-born Vic Edwards, a visiting fellow in the school of banking and finance at UNSW Business School and a part-time professorial visiting fellow at China Youth University of Political Studies in Beijing.

Troubled waters: Vic Edwards on the dispute in the South China Sea (w Video; August 17, 2016) | @JLorkin @UNSWbusiness

BusinessThink (@JLorkin): The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling at The Hague in July has been rather coolly received, at least in China. It deals with thorny issues [of historic rights and the source of maritime entitlements] in the South China Sea, through which much of the world’s trade passes.
The question is, should Australia be worried and should China be concerned, particularly as the Chinese economy starts to cool? Let’s start with what China is calling the nine-dash line. What is the historical basis for their claims?
Vic Edwards: … So the US switched their allegiances to Japan and managed to persuade Japan to come on the side of the US, even though they were deadly enemies before that. And that was on the basis that they would save the life of the emperor, Hirohito, who was a godlike character in Japan. So by offering that as an olive branch, so to speak, Japan came onside with the US and with Great Britain in 1952.
(… 殺し合う敵だったのにアメリカが日本を同盟国に引き入れることができたのは、日本で神格化されていた天皇ヒロヒトをアメリカが救ったからだ。…)
​Over quite a long period there hasn’t been a great deal of difficulty and I think the position that China took was when you had the Permanent Court of Arbitration say that it wanted to arbitrate on the matter, China saw clearly that the international law of the sea, which they had interpreted as accepting their position of having the South China Sea, was therefore up for arbitration and dispute. Consequently, they decided not to submit themselves to the jurisdiction of the UN and the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
Now, that might have been their weak point because the court would have said that they were in fact subject to the jurisdiction of The Hague, whereas they had decided to withdraw from it because they felt that their position had been misrepresented. It’s not that they’re without support. They do have about half a dozen to a dozen countries that would give them some support on the matter.
(… 中国の立場が反映されていないと感じているので取り下げようと決めたのに、ハーグの常設仲裁裁判所が本件の中国は裁判管轄権下にあると言いそうだった点が中国の弱点だったかもしれない。中国を支持する国は5、6から12くらいある。)
And they are asking Australia to be very careful about drawing any conclusions or trying to make a judgment about what China should do. So we have already had one or two statements from Australia that China should comply with international law and they have responded by saying Australia ought to be careful because while we do have an international agreement for trade, that can very easily be dismantled.

BusinessThink: It sounds as if Australia could be in a position of trying to calm down the situation. Indeed, Australia could actually just pour a little bit of oil on those very troubled waters?
Edwards: … So I think that that’s a very positive thing between Australia and China, but by the same token Australia also has a very strong allegiance to the US. So consequently, I think one of the problems that Australia has is that it may be doing the beckoning of the US.

I think one of the problems that Australia has is that it may be doing the beckoning of the US.

The US, you might notice, has not actually come out strongly and criticised China on this matter, not directly. There are a few minor officials that have done so but you haven’t found Barack Obama coming out. And I think one of the reasons is that America itself does not comply with the international law of the sea and in fact it has not submitted itself to the jurisdiction of the UN here so it would be quite hypocritical if they were to criticise China in that position.
(お気付きかもしれないが、アメリカは実際本件について強く出たり中国を批判したりしていない。… アメリカ自体が国際海洋法条約を批准していないことがその理由の一つであると思う。アメリカは海洋について国連の裁判管轄権下にない。だから、アメリカが中国を批判すると、かなり偽善的となろう。)

BusinessThink: It’s a dangerous game to be playing, particularly as so much of the world’s trade goes through those areas. And we’ve seen, since the judgment, that a lot of people are quite concerned about what the possible outcomes could be. What would be the implications if, say, world trade was disrupted?
Edwards: … They’re saying that they’re not going to stop trade, they’re not going to stop fishing, they’re not going to stop peaceful planes from flying over the South China Sea. That will be continued just as it has been since 1948.

BusinessThink: Also in the area we’ve got Japan which has previously been – let’s call them neutral for the sake of a better word – for many, many years since World War II. But now, of course, we’ve got the rise of a much more dominant Japan. Could that throw a spanner in the works?
Edwards: Well, that would be something that could be an undesirable eventuality. Japan has been peaceful because part of the 1952 agreement with the US and the UK was that Japan would not under any circumstances have any armaments, would not have an army, navy or air force. Now, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has recently suggested that Japan needs to go back to a more defensive footing. Part of his excuse is China’s perceived aggression – and he may have some argument there.
(… 日本が平和的であったのは、1952年の米英との合意により、日本は非武装で陸軍海軍空軍いずれも持たないこととされたからだ。安倍晋三首相は、最近、日本はもっと国防に力を入れる軸足に立ち戻らねばならないと示唆している。その言い訳の一つは、認識されている中国の武力侵略である。…)
However, he has just recently got a majority in the Upper House – I think he’s even got his two-thirds majority – so he can in fact form an army, navy and air force. And he has said that he would like to form at least the army and perhaps the navy before 2018, which is the end of his term. So we won’t know what will happen then, but I would hope that nothing would happen in terms of having armaments, having any sort of warfare, having any sort of skirmishes. I don’t think that would be helpful to anyone and I really think it would be a lose/lose situation all round.

BusinessThink: All this controversy is happening just as the Chinese economy is slowing. What’s happening there?
Edwards: Well, I think we’ve had the global financial crisis; that’s one of the main factors that’s occurring. And also China is trying to transition from being an export-oriented economy to a consumption economy. Those two factors were always felt to slow down China and China had planned on transitioning from about 11.5% growth rate to about 7.5 % growth rate. But currently it’s running at around about 6.7%, so it’s a little bit under what it has planned for.
I think we should see it in perspective. That 6.7% is about twice as much as any other economy in the world and of course China is the big growth factor in the world.

Without China, the whole world would probably slump into another recession.

So what China feels should be done is that countries such as the US and the EU should try to pick up their demand for things. And as recently as two weeks ago, the G20 countries agreed that they would try to improve demand. But they didn’t have any specific targets to meet so I’m not sure whether they will do very much.
(… G20は具体的な達成目標を示さなかったので、成果があったかどうか分からない。)
The US also is at present concerned about its trade with China, about the outsourcing of jobs to China, and particularly with Donald Trump [saying] he would like to not have any outsourcing and he would like to have local employment, etc, in the US. So the outlook is not great. China is still saying that it will meet its 6.5% to 7% target and it is endeavouring to do so, but I think that they will have a little bit of difficulty, but they will still be well above the world’s norm of around about 3.5%.
(… ドナルド・トランプは中国に雇用をアウトソーシングさせず、アメリカ国内のローカルな雇用を生むようにしたがっている。そうすると、中国経済の見通しは良くない。中国は引き続き6.5%から7%という目標を達成すべく努力するが、少々難しく、それでも世界平均を充分上回る3.5%程度の成長に落ち着くと見ている。)
So Australia can still see that it will do well. In fact, in such things as coal, minerals, iron ore and agricultural produce, demand from China has picked up. But of course the prices are lower, so we don’t get quite the same bang that we used to.

Australia オーストラリア Vol.4

(All the below links are in English.)

オーストラリア中央銀行 Reserve Bank of Australia の 2016年第2四半期 Bulletin June Quarter 2016 | @RBAInfo をご紹介します。

1. Household Wealth in Australia: Evidence from the 2014 HILDA Survey | Paul Ryan and Tahlee Stone(オーストラリア国民の家計の財産状態)

This article uses data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey* to assess how the distribution of wealth changed for Australian households between 2010 and 2014. Average household wealth increased modestly over that period, driven mainly by growth in the value of financial assets, most notably superannuation. The growth of housing wealth was slow in comparison, particularly in Queensland and Western Australia. While most of the changes in wealth were broadly based across households, wealth increased more rapidly for those residing in New South Wales and for retired households with large holdings of superannuation and equity assets.
** Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA)
*** Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Survey of Income and Housing (SIH)

… As the general distribution of household wealth (i.e. total assets minus total debts) across, these categories is broadly the same in 2014 as it was in 2010, this article focuses on how the distribution of housing assets (including investment properties), non-housing assets (predominately superannuation) and household debt have changed between 2010 and 2014.
The HILDA Survey* data suggest that the average Australian household had total wealth of around $740 000 in 2014. Measures of real (inflation adjusted) wealth per household from the HILDA Survey grew a little less over the decade to 2014 than measures based on household-level data from the SIH*** and distributional wealth indicators from the ABS that are consistent with aggregate data from the ASNA** (Graph 1).
Looking at the cross-sectional distribution of household wealth, older and higher-income households tend to have higher levels of wealth (Graph 2). …

Household Wealth
Overall, almost 60 per cent of households in the HILDA Survey had more real wealth in 2014 than was the case in 2010. Households with the lowest levels of wealth in 2010 saw the most growth of wealth over the four years to 2014 (Graph 3). This partly reflects the fact that low-wealth households are generally young and are just starting to build wealth. …

… most of the increase in wealth over the 2010–14 period came from growth in the value of non-housing assets, which are predominantly financial assets such as superannuation, equities and deposits (Graph 4). …

… Households in New South Wales and Victoria saw the largest increase in wealth, with growth in both housing and non-housing assets, while households in Queensland and Western Australia saw the biggest decrease in wealth, on average, mainly owing to a fall in the value of housing assets. The other states and territories generally saw relatively little growth in wealth over the period. The outcomes for households in Queensland and Western Australia are likely to have been influenced by the decline in commodity prices and the mining investment boom following the peak, which occurred between 2010 and 2014. …

Housing Assets
Housing is the largest asset class on Australian households’ balance sheets, accounting for around 60 per cent of total assets. Over any given period, growth in housing assets can be due to a change in housing prices or a change in the stock of housing held by Australian households. …Looking more closely across the states reveals large differences in the mean and median values of housing assets (Graph 5). …

… the share of households that either became home owners for the first time or upgraded their main residence decreased relative to the 2006–10 period (Graph 6). …Households in New South Wales and Victoria were slightly more likely to increase their holdings of other property than was the case from 2006 to 2010.

Household Debt
… High-income households hold the majority of debt. The top income quintile held almost 50 per cent of the stock of household debt in 2014. Almost a third of households held no debt, with the majority of these being retired households.
Over the four years to 2014, about 40 per cent of households increased their levels of nominal debt, while a similar share of households reduced their holdings of debt (Graph 7). …

Property debt accounted for a little over 80 per cent of the stock of debt held by households in 2014. Average debt increased modestly from 2010 to 2014, by a little more than 2 per cent per year (Graph 8). …

Non-housing Assets
… The mean value of real non-housing assets increased from around $320,000 in 2010 to almost $400,000 in 2014 (Graph 9). … Wealthier households held a higher-than-average share of assets in the form of direct equity holdings and business assets, while households with lower net wealth held more in cash and deposits, superannuation and durable goods (Graph 9).

The mean superannuation balance grew by around 4 per cent per annum in real terms for all households over the period to $250,000 in 2014 (Graph 10). … The noticeably stronger growth in median superannuation assets relative to the mean for households aged 45 to 64 years suggests that the ‘typical’ (or median) household in these age groups are building up superannuation assets faster in the lead-up to retirement than the households in the same age group with the largest balances of superannuation (Graph 10).

… The main driver of growth in household wealth over that period was an increase in the value of financial assets, mostly superannuation assets. Weaker growth in housing wealth, with declines in Queensland and Western Australia, contributed to the slower growth in total wealth from 2010–14. …

2. Conditions in the Manufacturing Sector | Sean Langcake(製造業界の現状)

Manufacturing output and employment have fallen steadily as a share of the Australian economy for the past three decades. This article looks at the composition of the sector and draws on the Reserve Bank’s liaison with manufacturers to provide an insight into some of their responses to the structural challenges in recent years. According to liaison, the increase in the supply of manufactured goods from low-cost sources abroad, exacerbated by the appreciation of the Australian dollar during the period of rising commodity prices, impaired the viability of many domestic manufacturers and precipitated the closure of some manufacturing production over the past decade. While the recent exchange rate depreciation has helped to improve competitiveness of Australian producers, so far there is only limited evidence of a recovery in manufacturing output and investment.

… It currently accounts for around 7 per cent of total output and employment. … over the 2000s, strong Asian demand for Australian commodities led to a sharp increase in the terms of trade and an appreciation of the Australian dollar. …

Manufacturing in Australia
Manufacturing output increased steadily throughout most of the 1990s before plateauing in the early 2000s; output today is around the same level it was just over a decade ago (Graph 1). … Over the past two decades, the Australian economy as a whole has grown considerably, resulting in a marked decline in manufacturing output as a share of total output. Employment in manufacturing has also declined over the past two decades, with growth in labour productivity in line with that of the economy as a whole. …
…investment in the manufacturing sector has also fallen steadily since its peak in 2005/06 (Graph 1). …

Australia’s manufacturing sector is quite diverse and is comprised of several sub-industries, the largest being: food, beverage & tobacco; machinery & equipment; petroleum, coal & chemicals; and metal products (Graph 2). …

The food, beverage & tobacco and metal products sub-industries both rely heavily on inputs from primary industries (agriculture and mining) where Australia has an abundant supply, and use a relatively low share of intermediate components that are imported. …
Conversely, the machinery & equipment and petroleum, coal & chemicals sub-industries use relatively few inputs from primary industries in Australia and have a relatively high share of imported intermediate components. …

The International Context
Over the past 25 years, most advanced economies have seen their manufacturing sectors recede as a share of both output and employment, although Australia has generally had a lower share than many other advanced economies (Graph 3).

The ratio of value added to total production in the Australian manufacturing sector is broadly comparable to that in other advanced economies’ manufacturing industries (Table 2). Relative to other Australian industries, manufacturing is a low value-added sector; the ratio of value-added to total production (29 per cent) is the lowest of any industry. …

… The steady increase in China’s share of Australia’s merchandise imports has coincided with a fall in the prices of imported manufactured goods relative to domestic production (Graph 4).

The Australian Dollar and Implications for Competitiveness
The appreciation of the Australian dollar from 2000 to 2013 worked against the international competitiveness of Australian manufacturing (Graph 4). Exports of Australian manufactured goods grew slowly over this period as they became relatively more expensive overseas (Graph 5). …

… Typically, contacts maintain some productive capacity in Australia, either as a testing or research and development (R&D) facility, to protect their more sensitive intellectual property, or to be able to fill orders more quickly. Nevertheless, firms that have ‘offshored’ production typically have much less productive capacity remaining in Australia than their overseas operations. …
…there are significant lags between a depreciation of the dollar and a response in manufacturing production and exports due to the nature of supply chains. For instance, even though domestic producers have become more competitive against imported products, retailers or other manufacturers may have contracts that secure supply in advance, which inhibits their ability to switch to domestically produced products. …
…they responded to the appreciation of the dollar by importing more goods, either by choice or necessity as production of some inputs had moved offshore. … while the lower value of the dollar aids demand, margins are under pressure due to rising import costs in instances where local substitutes are not readily available.

Domestic Input Costs and Implications for International Competitiveness
… Australian manufacturing labour costs appear to be relatively high compared with those in other economies – a feature that has become more pronounced over time (Graph 6). …

…firms have been looking to find labour productivity gains by automating some production processes. They have also been developing new products to diversify their offering. These shifts are borne out in the nature of firms’ investments; increasingly, manufacturers are investing in intellectual property rather than physical capital (Graph 7). …

…foreign-owned manufacturing firms operating in Australia are more willing to invest in R&D than physical capital in their Australian subsidiaries, although it is difficult to quantify what share of manufacturing activity is accounted for by these firms. …

Difficulties Integrating in Supply Chains
…other economies have responded to pressure from cheaper, imported manufactured goods by integrating themselves more effectively into increasingly fragmented global supply chains. … Australia’s geographic isolation contributes to high trade costs and presents a significant impediment to greater participation in global supply chains. …the costs of trading Australia’s manufactured goods – largely international transport costs – are in the order of 20–25 per cent higher than the global average. … only 4 per cent of manufacturing firms are part of an integrated supply chain.
…Australia’s relatively high trade costs leave domestic producers primarily exposed to the relatively small domestic market and unable to benefit from the scale advantages that other advanced economies achieve through production for larger domestic markets and export markets. …around 45 per cent of the difference between US and Australian non-farm labour productivity levels can be explained by Australia’s geographic isolation. High trade costs may also protect less productive domestic firms from import competition, although this protection is likely to have been eroded through time by lower international search and transaction costs. …

Conclusion( )内は抄訳
The depreciation of the Australian dollar over recent years has helped to improve the competitiveness of Australian manufacturing. Additionally, there is likely to be a steady level of activity in the food, beverages & tobacco sub-industry due to Australia’s comparative advantage in primary resources and growing export demand. Against this, softer demand from the mining sector and the cessation of passenger vehicle production will weigh on output, although motor vehicle and transport equipment production currently makes up only around 5 per cent of manufacturing output.
In the longer term, the structural challenges facing the Australian manufacturing sector are likely to constrain output. Declining global prices for manufactured goods and the sustained high level of the Australian dollar during the resource investment boom impaired the viability of many Australian manufacturers and precipitated considerable structural change in the sector, with numerous manufacturers either closing or shifting production to lower-cost economies. R&D operations are one area where Australia’s cost disadvantages are less of an impediment and our highly skilled workforce is a comparative advantage. Although R&D investment has been growing steadily, the subsequent demand for labour and, in particular, physical capital are likely to be less than was generated by ‘traditional’ manufacturing activities.

Australia オーストラリア Vol.3

オーストラリア貿易・投資概観です。(Links except 2(4)are in Japanese.)

1.(1)オーストラリア連邦(Commonwealth of Australia)基礎データ 平成27年11月11日 の「経済」の「9 総貿易額及び主要貿易相手国」によると、オーストラリアの2013/14年度の
輸入額は3,380億豪ドル、相手国は中国15.4%・米国12.2%・日本6.3% となっています。
 また、「10 主要貿易品目」によると、

(2)「二国間関係」の「3 経済関係」によると、日豪二国間貿易(2014年、財のみ)は、

オーストラリア輸出統計(国・地域別) 最終更新日:2016年1月28日 | JETRO
世界経済のネタ帳 オーストラリアの貿易

2.(1)オーストラリアからの輸入 ー 産業情報 | @Austrade @AusUnlimited に主要分野として、
・ クリエイティブ(映画・テレビ、音楽産業、芸術・出版)
・ バイオテクノロジー
・ クリーンエネルギー・省エネ(概況、事例紹介、政策支援、ニュース)
・ インフラ・資源開発(建設、航空・空港、資源開発)
・ 金融サービス(アセット・ベース・ファイナンス/リース、ファンドマネジメント、ヘッジファンド、保険、投資銀行、支払・決済システム、プライベート・バンキング、プライベート・エクイティ/ベンチャー・キャピタル、リテール・バンキング)
・ 消費財(化粧品、ファッション、宝石)
・ 食品・飲料・農水産物(概要、農水産物、加工食品・飲料、ワイン、ネイティブ・フード、オーストラリア食品カタログ、食品関連ニュース)
・ 環境技術(グリーンビルディング・その他の環境技術のケーススタディ、その他オーストラリアの環境関連企業)
・ 医療機器とヘルスケア産業(治療機器及び手術用具・設備、ヘルスIT、保健インフラとサービス、臨床試験)
・ 情報通信技術(製品開発(R&D)施設、コンテンツ開発、技術支援センター、グローバルソーシング)
・ サービス産業(コンサルティング・アドバイザリー、法務サービス、物流、フランチャイズ)
・ スポーツ・オリンピック(2012年ロンドンオリンピック ~ スポーツ分野でのオーストラリア企業の成功例)
・ 資源技術・専門性
・ グローバル人材育成(多文化・多民族国家で世界に通じるグローバルなビジネススキルを習得できる;世界で最もグローバルな教育環境でグローバルなセンスを磨ける;グローバル化のニーズにあった研修プログラムが充実;安心して社員を送れる理想的な海外研修先)

(2)また、オーストラリアへの投資 ー 分野別概況 | @Austrade @AusUnlimited には一覧として、
・ 再生可能エネルギー・環境(上記(1)「クリーンエネルギー・省エネ」)
・ エネルギー効率化
・ バイオ燃料
・ 風力発電
・ 太陽光発電
・ 鉱業と資源(豊富で多様な鉱物資源、高度な採掘装置・技術・サービス、投資のチャンス)
・ 水関連事業
・ 建築・建設(建築建設サービス、建築用品と材料、グリーンビル)
・ ICT産業(急成長を遂げるダイナミックな市場)
・ プロフェッショナル・ビジネスサービス
・ 金融サービス
・ バイオテクノロジー
・ 食品飲料
・ インフラ ~ 洗練されたPPP
・ 農林水産物

・ クリーン(再生可能)エネルギー
・ インフラ(建設)
・ 情報通信技術(ICT)
・ 金融
・ (プロフェッショナル・ビジネス)サービス産業
・ 資源
・ 食品飲料・農水産物
・ バイオテクノロジー

(4)Why Australia: Benchmark Report (PDF) の p.9: AUSTRALIA’S REAL GROSS VALUE ADDED BY INDUSTRY では、
・ Financial and Insurance 9.3%
・ Mining 9.3%
・ Construction 8.2%
・ Health Care and Social Assistance 7.0%
・ Manufacturing 6.6%
・ Professional, Scientific and Technical 6.4%
・ Education and Training 4.9%
・ Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4.9%
・ Information Media and Telecommunications 3.2%
・ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2.4%
 また、同 p.10: GROWTH BY INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA’S REAL GROSS VALUE ADDED (All-Industries Average 3.2%) では、
・ Information Media and Telecommunications 5.3%
・ Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 5.0%
・ Construction 4.6%
・ Financial and Insurance Services 4.5%
・ Mining 4.4%
・ Health Care and Social Assistance 4.2%
・ Transport, Postal and Warehousing 3.5%
・ Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3.0%


Australia オーストラリア Vol.2


1. More Jobs and Growth through Increased Trade and Investment (w PDF) | @LiberalAus は、今月の選挙より前の(イギリスEU離脱投票前でもある)今年5月の、オーストラリアの政権与党たる自由党の、「貿易・投資により雇用・経済成長を」、という政策発表(PDFは本頁と同一内容)です。選挙で勝利し連立政権が続いた場合の今後の政策方針であり、このとおり進めて行かれると考えられます。特筆すべきは、以下のとおり。
・ 今月1日より、年間総売上高1000万ドル未満の中小企業に対して、法人税率を27.5%に引き下げ、順次更に下げていく(PLAN 1:… From 1 July 2016, small businesses will have their corporate tax rate progressively reduced. On 1 July 2016, the tax rate will fall to 27.5 per cent for companies with annual turnover less than $10 million. This 27.5 per cent rate will be gradually extended to all companies, before falling to 27 per cent on 1 July 2024, 26 percent on 1 July 2025, and 25 per cent on 1 July 2026. …)。
・ 輸出手続窓口一本化(PLAN 2:… some businesses require permits or approvals from multiple government departments or agencies before they are able to export. The ‘Single Window’ will substantially reduce red tape and, in doing so, reduce the time and cost associated with Australian exporters doing business. …)。
・ サービス業は、オーストラリアの就業者の80%を占め、GDPの70%を占めるのに、輸出額のうちたった21%である(PLAN 5:… Services businesses employ 80 per cent of the Australian workforce and make up 70 per cent of our GDP, yet only 21 per cent of Australia’s exports are services. …)。
・ この政策に、1,600億ドルの予算を充当する。

2. Foreign Investment in Australia remains strong (w PDF) | Foreign Investment Review Board @Treasury_AU は、今年4月にFIRBから発表された、2014-15年における外国からのオーストラリアへの投資に係る年次レポート(PDF)です。要点(p.xii)は、以下のとおり。以下の表は、Chart 2.1 から Table 2.12 まで(2-1~15)。
・ 投資申込件数が、13-14年は24,102件であったのに対し、14-15年は37,953件と激増した。
・ 総額1,946億ドルの投資申込が14-15年に承認され、13-14年比16.3%増となった。
・ 居住用不動産への投資申込総額が、13-14年には347億ドルであったが、14-15年には608億ドルとなった。また、商業用不動産への投資申込額は362億ドルであった。
・ その他、サービス業では388億ドル、鉱業では267億ドル、製造業では195億ドル、の投資申込があった。
・ アメリカはオーストラリアにとって最大の投資元であり、2014年末において累積総額の23.7%を占めた。中国はオーストラリアにとって2014-15年は最大の投資申込許可国であって466億ドルを計上しているが、累積総額では4.4%で5位である。

3. Trade in services Australia (w PDF) | @dfat @AusUnlimited @ABSStats は、今年2月に外交貿易省から発表された、2014-15年におけるオーストラリアのサービス貿易に係る年次レポート(PDF)です。要点(p.2-3)は、以下のとおり。以下の表は、Table 7 から Table 70 まで(3-1~22)。
・ 2014-15年におけるオーストラリアのサービス貿易総額は、前年比3.8%増の1,339億ドル。2009-10年以来、年平均5.3%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス貿易総額は、全貿易中、2013-14年は19.2%を占めていたが、2014-15年は20.3%と増加した。
・ サービス貿易収支赤字は、2014-15年には、2013-14年の143億ドルから59億ドル減って、84億ドルとなった。
・ サービス輸出額は、前年比9.4%増の628億ドル。2009-10年以来、年平均4.3%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス輸出量は前年比7.6%増、価格は前年比1.7%増。量は、2009-10年以来、年平均2.1%で増加し続けている。
・ サービス輸出額は、全輸出中、2013-14年は17.3%を占めていたが、2014-15年は19.7%と増加した。
・ 付加価値ベースのサービス輸出額は、全サービス輸出中、約40%を占める。
・ サービス輸入額は、前年比0.6%減の712億ドル。尤も、2009-10年以来、年平均増加率は6.1%である。
・ サービス輸入量は前年比5.3%減、価格は前年比4.9%増。 尤も、 量は、2009-10年以来、年平均増加率は3.9%である。
・ サービス輸入額は、全輸出中、2013-14年は21.1%を占めていたが、2014-15年は20.9%と減少した。

4. Australian Election: Malcolm Turnbull Declares Victory for Conservatives – New government faces multiple challenges, including a fractious Senate and slowing economy | @WSJRobTaylor は、今月2日投票の選挙の結果、ようやくなされた現連立政権の勝利宣言などを伝える記事(10日)です。
 日欧の財政赤字より遥かにマシである、(… Collapsing prices for the country’s commodity exports have contributed to a deficit totaling A$85 billion over the next four years. Australia’s debt to gross domestic product ratio—at 37% as of 2015—is far less than that of Europe and Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund, but debt is growing at a pace among the world’s fastest. …)、鉱業ブームの間の豪ドル高により空洞化した工業地域から、給与上昇が遅く世界で最も高い住宅費と闘っている大都市まで、ターンブル首相は有権者の懸念を払拭すべくもがいた(… From industrial towns hollowed out by a strong currency during the mining boom to big cities like Sydney, where people are grappling with slowing wages and some of the world’s costliest housing, he struggled to address voter concerns. …)、などとも触れられています。
 @jillesheppard 氏からは、首相は、24年間続いた経済成長の後の現下の景気悪化に対応するため、経済自身のイデオロギーに沿わない経済政策等の妥協を強いられるであろう等の旨コメントされています(… Mr. Turnbull will be forced to compromise on economic overhauls at the worst possible time, said Jill Sheppard, a political scientist at the Australian National University, with global economic headwinds and a fragile budget environment at home. “My gut feeling is they will have to break packages down into things they think they can achieve, while there is also going to be a lot of horse trading,” Ms. Sheppard said. “Given the vast ideological differences on these crossbenches, Mr. Turnbull is not going to have the luxury of putting together cohesive packages, economic or otherwise.”)
 「Risks to Australia’s Economic Miracle」にインフォグラフ有り。
あくまで参考: 選挙結果(Live Australian election results: track the votes | @guardian